The dust has settled and the horsetrading has begun in Israel following their elections last night. Everyone is pretty much claiming victory- and by everyone I mean the two largest parties- the right wing Likud Party and the centrist Kadima Party. The final numbers shake out like this:
Kadima: 28 seats
Likud: 27 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 15 seats
Labor: 13 seats
Shas: 11 seats
United Torah Judaism: 5 seats
National Union: 4 seats
Hadash: 4 seats
United Arab List Ta'al: 4 seats
Balad: 3 seats
Jewish Home: 3 seats
Meretz: 3 seats
The BBC is reporting that Likud had a deal sown up with the ultra-orthodox Shas Party in the run up to the election, so that should pretty much put the two of them at 38 seats. Throw Labor and Kadima together and you end up with 41 seats. The magic number they're going to want to reach is 61 for the majority they're going to need to form a government- but even with Shas and Labor in the mix, Kadima and Likud are going to need more coalition partners if they want to form a government. I'm getting that Kadima can count on the United Arab List- bringing them up to 45- and maybe even some of the other smaller parties, but the real Kingmaker right now is the far right (and shit scary) Yisraei Beiteinu Party. They could put Likud in power very easily.
The question is, what would be the implications for the peace process and Israeli democracy as a whole if they did? YB leader Avigdor Lieberman has made it plain that he considers Israeli Arabs a potential fifth column in the heart of the Jewish state AND wants them to sign loyalty oaths pledging their loyalty to the state- if anything close to that comes to pass, it would be a blow to the heart of Israeli democracy itself. For sixty years, Israel has had a robust and proud democratic tradition and when you start singling out your own citizens because of their religious or ethnic background it represents a clear and present danger to democracy itself, wherever you are.
I can understand and respect the fact that Israelis might feel besieged and encircled, given the depredations of Hamas and the lopsided results of Israel's war in Lebanon- however, if Israeli democracy isn't strong, how can Israel expect to survive in the long term. A YB-Likud-Shas Government would be the worst of all possible combinations for Israel and anyone concerned with the future of the Middle East Peace Process.
The reason the process is so stalled is because there is no leader with the chops to do what needs to be done- on either side. The Palestinians have to face up to the fact that they're not getting an unlimited right of return, all the settlements probably aren't going away and they might have to give up on East Jerusalem- and control Hamas somehow. The Israelis, for their part, are going to have to leave the West Bank- and that, like the evacuations from the Sinai and Gaza will be nationally traumatic moments that Israel will have to face- and they might have to give up parts of East Jerusalem. Until there are leaders with the political capitol to carry through with these tough decisions, I don't think the peace process is going anywhere.
And if Israel tilts right, then if Hamas twitches the wrong way, they'll get steamrolled right out of Gaza, international opinion be damned. If Iran twitches the wrong way, they can kiss their nuclear program goodbye, courtesy of the IAF. If what I'm hearing about former President Khatami running are true, then conciliation and quiet diplomacy could avoid a disaster with regards to the Iranian question.
Whatever your opinions about the Middle East, it is ironic in an election where everyone claimed victory, everyone might end up losing.
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