Saturday, August 13, 2011

Politics Live Blog: The Straw Poll Edition

12:26 PM, CST: Perry is in.

Just caught a tiny bit of his announcement and it's way too early to tell, but he looked passionate, vigorous and yes, even Presidential. I have a feeling his numbers are going to go through the roof- and fast.

I think this effectively means Palin is not running for President- or if she is, then this is going to move up her timetable. (Please Mrs. P: if you're going to do it, then do it already. Stop flipping your hair and being all firty with the voters...)

1:56 PM, CST: Straw poll is underway... found a Liveblog over here and then there's Twitter. #iastrawpoll seems to be providing pretty good up to the minute coverage of the latest. The general feeling is that Pawlenty might scrape into 3rd place behind Paul and Bachmann but there are whispers that the lines to get into Bachmann's tent are insanely long. (Further whispers are that Bachmann has sold 4k in tickets already.) Hmmm...

The more I think about it, the more I think Bachmann needs this win. Sure, if Paul wins it, she can shrug it off and say 'he was better organized' but with Perry in the race, she needs to up her game and fast if she's going to emerge as a serious challenger. Pawlenty, if he gets into 3rd Place, stays alive. Santorum and Cain are probably dones-o if they don't crack the top 3.

4:41 PM, CST: Now it's all over but the waiting... I'm thinking Bachmann, Paul, Pawlenty in that order. Probably followed by Romney, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, Huntsman, McCotter. We'll see how right I am in a little bit.

5:42 PM CST: Bachman first. Looks like Ron Paul and T-Paw in 2nd and 3rd.

5:44 PM CST: then Santorum, Cain, Romney, Gingrich... Huntsman and McCotter round out the field.

5:47 PM CST: The Breakdown... the big winners are obviously Pawlenty (he stays alive) and Santorum (bleck!) who also, unfortunately stays alive as well. This is an excellent result for Bachmann- granted 152 votes isn't exactly a huge margin, but if she had been beaten into 2nd Place by Ron Paul it would have raised a lot of questions about her viability which she doesn't need now that Perry has jumped in.

He timed this perfectly- because he stole a lot of Bachmann's thunder and went straight to South Carolina. He can make up ground in Iowa and New Hampshire- but if Perry gets a good ground game in South Carolina strong finishes in both of those states could translate into momentum for a South Carolina win. That could propel him all the way across the finish line. I'm thinking Cain and McCotter drop out after this- Huntsman is throwing everything at Florida and Gingrich is too weighed down by ego to drop out just now. I think Santorum will stick around for awhile but I don't see him getting anywhere after this- and now that Perry's in, Romney is about to turn into a pumpkin.

10:17 PM, CST: Hold the phone... Perry- who got in TODAY and hadn't even been to Iowa yet much less invested time, money and energy into the straw poll managed to scrape up 718 votes- or 3.8% of the straw poll vote. More than Romney, Gingrich, Hunstmen and McCotter...this changes things radically. I agree with Obradovich's basic thesis- this may be Bachmann's moment in the sun, but it'll be a short one. If a guy who got into the race officially only today can pull 3% of the vote without even trying? Imagine if he would have made a serious play for it.

We need poll data!

7:52 AM, CST: The Straw Poll has claimed it's first victim- Tim Pawlenty is dropping out. This, I didn't call. I would have thought 3rd Place would have kept him alive for awhile longer but he must have put a lot of cash into the Straw Poll which got him a poor third place showing. It could have been worse- could have been 4th or 5th, but if you put your eggs in one basket and get third? Evidentally not good enough.

I think there's also an outside chance we could lose one or two more over the next week or so. Santorum is pretty low budget so he could hang for awhile. Cain is trooping on- but McCotter? Huntsman? Probably not so much... though to be fair, Huntsman is reportedly putting everything into Florida of all places. There's also (lest we forget) Fred Karger, Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer...

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