The Second District: Aftermath

Well, I was somewhat surprised at the result- a 5 point win is far from a drubbing, but I for one, given the money that was pouring into the District in support of Miller-Meeks expected this to be a lot closer than it actually turned out to be. So what happened? This did:

Miller-Meeks carried:
Appanoose
Cedar
Davis
Henry
Louisa
Muscatine
Van Buren
Wapello
Washington
and Wayne Counties

Loebsack carried:
Des Moines
Jefferson
Johnson
Lee
and Linn Counties...

Several things jumped out at me when looking at the breakdown. First of all, Miller-Meeks barely edged out a win in Wapello County, where her hometown of Ottumwa is- if you're running in the Second District, you have to know that you need to keep it respectable in Johnson, close in Linn and sweep pretty much everything else if you want a serious shot. You can't eke out wins in places like Wapello County- and you need the margins that she saw in Muscatine County (a 10 point drubbing of Loebsack) if you want to really stay in it.

What probably killed her most of all though was Des Moines and Lee Counties. You have to win places like Burlington, Ft. Madison and Keokuk if you want to win this district and although the results were close, again, given the population edge in Johnson and Linn that favors Loebsack, you can't afford to eke out wins in these counties. Jefferson County going Loebsack's way surprised me at first, but then I noticed that it was the home of Fairfield and Vedic City. Can't seen the Maharishi crowd being hip to Republican talking points, so that's OK.

Ultimately I'd say if you're going to concede Johnson County to Loebsack, you need to keep it very close in Linn County and pick up Muscatine and Des Moines Counties (Muscatine and Burlington) by large margins if you want a serious shot. Push your margins up as far as you can in Linn, and run up the score in places like Wapello and everywhere else you're strong and this could have been a different race. But ultimately, I'd say losing Lee and Des Moines Counties probably proved fatal to Miller-Meeks, but not humiliatingly so. The only question is: does Miller-Meeks have one more campaign left in her? 2012 should answer that question once and for all...