So, about Korea...
Like Beijing, I am concerned, but not overly worried about a Second Korean War breaking out anytime soon. I think there are a number of things at work here worth mentioning- and a lot of policy wonks in the media out there have beaten me to the punch, but between the North wanting concessions from the international community AND the fact that Little Kim is taking over from Daddy Kim sometime soon (and yes, I think I am going to call him Lil' Kim from now on, just for fun) I think the North is playing games. Which wouldn't be all that bad, except when they play games, they use real live artillery shells and military forces.
But I would say to people who are wondering: watch China very, very closely and try and read between the lines. It's interesting, now that the US is sending an aircraft carrier to conduct joint exercises with the South Koreans, that Beijing is merely expressing 'concern.' In August, the PLA said sending the GW to the Yellow Sea 'threatened long-term damage to Sino-US relations.' There's a palpable difference in tone there over the exact same action we're taking… and it could mean that Beijing is pulling the leash on Pyongyang or it could mean that Beijing is trying to stay clear of a potential war and Pyongyang ain't listening to them no more.
Either way a cautious, restrained, 'let's all just calm down and get along' attitude from China is fine by me.
The other reason I'm concerned, but not overly worried: South Korea. South Korea is a G-20 economy and they are not going to start some shit unless they have no other choice. With a million-man (and probably well fed) army, North Korea can do a lot of damage to their economic infrastructure whereas they can't exactly return the favor to the North. If and when they have no other choice, they'll do what they have to do- but right now, they'll talk tough and take defensive measures, but they won't fire the first shot. (Popular Mechanics, bless them has some interesting articles on their site on the subject- but this one seems especially relevant.)
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