Redistricting: The Aftermath

With Republicans controlling statehouses at levels not seen since 1928, the interesting partisan battle next year is going to be that of redistricting. With the census every ten years, and the House stuck at 435 seats, that means that populations shifts mean that some states will lose seats and others will gain them. All of which got me thinking... now that Branstad is back in charge. What will happen if Iowa loses another Congressional District? (I mean, I'm hoping we don't, but who can blame us young people if we head for the hills. Especially after the charming antics of Bob Vander Plaats and the Iowa Family Policy Center this past election.)

I'd say the most likely scenario is the break-up of District 3. It'd make no sense to break up up District One and 3 is geographically placed at the center of the state, making it easy for the 2nd, 1st and 4th Districts to absorb what they can. I laid out the following scenario...

Break-up District 3:

Poweshiek
Iowa
Mahaska
Keokuk
Lucas
Monroe
...to Second District

31038 votes
16452 GOP
14585 DEM

new baseline: 250416
comes out 120498 REP, 129917 DEM- Loebsack keeps his seat

Grundy
Tama
Benton
...to first District

20141 votes
11577 REP
8564 DEM

new baseline: 224048
comes out 112495 DEM, 111553 REP- Braley keeps his seat, but only just.

Polk
Jasper
Marion
...to 4th District

179389 votes
REP: 82477
DEM: 96912

new baseline: 405465 votes
comes out 234601 REP, 170864 DEM- Latham would keep this one.

This analysis is flawed on a couple of points. First of all, I don't know if we're going to lose a seat- and if so, I don't know how they'll redraw things. Second of all, I based this on vote totals off of NBC News- which is a spectacularly flawed way of doing things, considering the fact that any election under new lines would be in 2012, a Presidential Election year- which would mean higher turnout, which would throw all these numbers way off. Different elections mean different moods, different candidates and different issues- but playing out my what-if...

If we do lose a seat and split up the 3rd District, then Boswell would be toast under this plan and Daley would be vulnerable. Miller-Meeks would still lose, but again, I have to wonder whether she put too many eggs in Linn and Johnson Counties. She did exactly what she needed to in both these counties-- keep it close in Linn, respectable in Johnson- but what she neglected was to run up the score in Des Moines, Lee and Wapello Counties... she needed big 10 point wins like she got in Muscatine County to have a real shot and the chips didn't fall her way. Under this scenario, the Second District would pick up a healthy chunk of rural counties which would trend Republican. But with the vote totals... still wouldn't get the job done.

But keep an eye on the coming redistricting battle... it might be interesting. And better yet- hope that Iowa keeps its 5 seats!