...until our long, national nightmare is finally over. And the damn political junk mail and television ads will come to an END.
So what's going to happen? I haven't a clue. I find it suspect that Conservatives spend all summer bellowing about how inaccurate the polls are because they're basing their statistical models of 2008 voter turnout are now crowing and popping champagne over good news in the numbers for Mittens.
The Obama Campaign is also big on their early voting ground game. I trust that about as much as I trust polls at this point.
Some food for thought though:
-Undecideds if there are any left to break late historically have broken for the challenger.
-Incumbents polling under 50% are in deep shit.
Conservatives are swooning over new numbers that have Romney within single digits in Oregon and within the margin of error in Minnesota. I doubt either flips to Romney but the Obama Campaign is worried enough to spend money in Minnesota (ostensibly to reach voters in NW Wisconsin- but that's not where the votes are in WI) and recent Romney ad buys in Pennsylvania have the Democrats moving money to respond. And money they have to spend in Pennsylvania and Minnesota is money they're not spending in Ohio- which given how small the margin of error is in this election could make the difference. So Mittens is playing it smart at the very least.
Some things to ponder for Election Night: if Mittens peels away an electoral vote from Maine or takes New Hampshire that doesn't bode well for the President and we can start thinking about Preference Cascade scenarios dreamed about by the Great Guru Instapundit and Father Cigar amongst other people. If the President holds both then it's anybody's guess what happens.
We'll see in less than a week.
No comments:
Post a Comment