Friday, February 11, 2011

Game On

I was alive when the Berlin Wall came down, but I'm not really sure I remember watching it. It's one of those iconic clips you've seen replayed over and over again so much the line between what you might have seen back then and what you do see now gets a little blurry. I've often wished I would have been old enough to understand and appreciate just what exactly was going on in 1989- I remember thinking how cool it was that there were so many new countries and capitols to learn- (back then I was a geography FREAK. Ruled the Regina High School Geography Bee for at least three years in a row and went to State twice!) But I never really understood what history was going on around me back then. I never got to watch it up close and personal.

Until today.

Like so many around the world, I'd been watching events unfold in Egypt trying desperately to hope for a peaceful, happy result for citizens that just wanted their basic democratic rights. I'd been disgusted by fear-mongering on the part of some of the same right wing ideologues that had been preaching the virtues of freedom and liberty while sending our troops into Iraq just a few short years before. I'd been flabbergasted by the sheer lunacy of Glenn Beck's conspiracy theory about the world 'going to a darker place' and that 'the Muslim takeover had begun.' How can anyone who looks at footage of thousands of people celebrating in sheer joy right now think that something truly bad could come of this?

I know it's not that simple. Revolutions, true ones, take time and don't always end up the way we'd want them to, but this is different. There aren't bearded Mullahs waiting in the wings to takeover. This wasn't Iran in 1979, this is Egypt in 2011, where Facebook and Twitter played pivotal roles in organizing these protests and it was the young, people my age, my one world-wide wired generation that were prime movers in these protests- the rest of a nation tired of corruption, lies and dictatorship joined the ride and the rest is history.

That's not to say that I don't think there are potential pitfalls ahead, but I refuse to believe that one less dictator in the world can be seen as anything less than a fundamentally good thing. Something good happened today. Really, genuinely good- and it's not often you get to say that- much less watch it on television.

Am I crazy about the military taking over? Yes and no. I think it was probably inevitable. The appointment of Suleiman as VP was too little, too late and every concession Mubarak made only served to embolden the protestors because they still hadn't gotten what they wanted out of the situation- which was his resignation. The military remained apolitical throughout- refusing to fire on the protestors and then when Mubarak's thugs attempted to drive them out, they firmly maintained law and order by protecting the protestors. Whatever last night's charade was, it was the last chance Mubarak had to leave on his own terms and by his own accord. After last night, it was only the military who could have moved him- and although there's been no confirmation yet, I'm almost certain that's exactly what happened.

Now the real work begins- and we get to see just how apolitical the military really is. If they transition to elections and a civilian government quickly and without too much fuss, I think we can chalk this up as a win. Whether they start to really dismantle some of the structures of this regime or not- all of which remain, despite Mubarak's departure is another big question- but if they can do those two things and do them in a timely, stable and efficient manner than yes, I'm going to chalk this up as a win.

I've mentioned it before, but I will say it again: we need to shake loose the Cold War realists from our foreign policy establishment. Our response was muddled at points, abstract at best and completely useless at other times all of which was not needed at all. We can no longer ignore the democratic aspirations of any given people anywhere in the world at one time- when protests like these happen we need to fundamentally come down on the side of what's right- and recognize that our continued support of whatever dictator will only serve to alienate and piss off the people who will follow him. Our interests would have been best served by talking tough when necessary and offering Mubarak a graceful, honorable exit from the situation. President Obama likes to talk about how much he admires Reagen: in this case he wasn't Reagen dealing Marcos in '86. He was Carter dealing with Iran in '79. Not that kind of foreign policy moxie you want to show heading into an election cycle.

(And although in America, Facebook and Twitter maybe nothing more than useful ways to waste ones time, elsewhere in the world they have become so much more than that. It was quite the sight watching the Twitter feed almost explode off my computer screen when the news of the resignation broke. Someday, somewhere, somehow, I have no doubt that America will move beyond Farmville and actually USE Facebook, Twitter and company.)

So what now? If Egypt is the center of the Arab world as we know it, then what can the rest of the region be thinking right now? As I'm writing this, word is starting to break on Twitter that police in Algeria are trying to stop a celebratory march from taking place. Hezbollah and the Iranians are trying to hail this as a great victory for them, which I think might be their way of saying 'yes, we're awesome, please don't hurt us' to their respective populaces. Nothing from Yemen, Jordan or Syria yet.

Here's what I think: Algeria and Yemen might pop up again- and on Yemen, home base of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the right wingers may be on slightly firmer ground with their worries. There might be moves to some more democratic reforms in Jordan, but I doubt it will be anything as drastic as what just happened in Egypt. What I'm really interested to see is what, if anything happens in Syria… and even hopefully Iran.

Whatever happens, watch the news tonight, hop on Twitter and see what pops up and more importantly, kids- saddle up because I have a sneaking suspicion that now, it's going to be game on.

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