What Now?

The ink is barely dry on the State Supreme Court's ruling and already opponents are mobilizing. A group went to try and talk to Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy's office to lobby for him to start the process on a constitutional amendment limiting marriage to one man and one woman, but the Speaker was gone for the week, as was the rest of the legislature-- and Conservatives seem to be (at least in the very, very early going) taking the position that Iowans should be allowed to vote.

Unfortunately, I think the wording of the decision kind of flies in the face of that. Seems like (and I want to see the text of the decision before I say for sure) but it seems like the State Supreme Court looked at the text of the Constitution and came to the conclusion that the equal protection clause had been violated and despite the deep and controversial opinions about this, they had no choice but to do what the law said.

I like that- but like I said, I want to find some text of the decision before I analyze it in depth. And I also think it's a little too early to gauge reaction on this. I think just going on Facebook, it's incredible to see- positive reactions, certainly from everyone I know. Young people will drive this debate and win the day- my generation will do it, slowly but surely. A pragmatic Conservative should be encouraging loving, two parent families instead of fighting a losing battle they can't possibly win in the long term. Demographics is destiny- and even young Christians have different attitudes from their elders. (I also think pot will be legal in the next 20-30 years and maybe soon because of this generation gap, but that's a different blog post.)

My forecast is this:

First of all, don't read comments on the internet. I think they're full of crazy people on both sides anyway- so it's not an accurate gauge of public mood. Listen to conversations in your local diner, in your grocery store- that'll give you a better idea. Iowa always, always surprises me- which is part of the reason why I love this state- and I think in the Midwest in general, there's a quiet undercurrent of independence in the politics of the region which makes stances on social issues hard to pick out.

Opponents have a high bar to clear- 2 consecutive sessions of the legislature followed by a vote. The earliest they can do this- presuming the legislature takes this up right now, this year- is going to be 2011. More like 2012. If it doesn't get through ONE time, it's pushed back ONE more year. If PROponents have learned their lessons from the Prop 8 debacle in California, they will put the stories of some of these couples front and center. Iowans, if they can be defined, are at their hearts, a practical lot. 'If they've been together this long, why can't they get married?' I think that's the attitude PROponents will have to aim for... and they have 2-3 years to get this in the public eye, to get people used to the idea that gay marriage won't make the social fabric of their lives fall apart. I don't think many people buy into that, but if Conservatives say 'the sky will fall if this happens' and it happens- and the sky DOESN'T fall, then they've lost a big part of the argument right there.

I think this will hold in the long term. And if it comes down to a vote, then I will be out there, working my butt off to make sure that it does hold.