Saturday, December 1, 2012

The End of the Conference Merry-Go-Round... For Now.

So the dust is starting to settle and the Earth has stopped moving for now- but two weeks later, I'm starting to wonder if the Conference Re-Alignment Merry-Go-Round has stopped again- for now anyway, leaving the B1G Ten at the somewhat incongruous number of fourteen teams starting in the 2014 season.

There's a lot of healthy skepticism in the B1G about the addition of Maryland and Rutgers- over here in the Western end of B1G territory, it feels strange, alien, just plain odd. Is it about money? Yes. Does it expanding recruiting possibilities and position the conference for the demographics of the future, as population moves away from the B1G's traditional heartland? Yes. Does it finally give Penn State some natural rivals and neighbors? Yes.

But do we stop at 14? And if, as it appears inevitable, we end up going to 16, who do we add?

This is where it gets interesting to me. So far, the B1G Ten has stuck to it's guns- expansion has been within the contiguous geographic footprint of the Conference and new members have been members of the American Association of Universities. Given that formula, who do we get? I was resigned to Virginia and UNC. Or even Georgia Tech. Any future expansion would have to break one of those rules- the Virginia schools are a package deal- which is what got VaTech into the ACC to begin with. And Kansas would probably bring Kansas State right along with them.

Where then we do we go? And how viable can the B1G Ten actually be at sixteen teams? The Quiet Man didn't think a super conference era would last. And I agree with him- sixteen is just too many teams. But everything hinges on Maryland's exit from the ACC. If they have to pay the full $50 million, I'd say the ACC will be fine. If they wriggle out of it, I think Florida State and Clemson jump to the Big 12- and that's when I'd expect Cincy and UCONN to get their invites to the ACC.

In their heart of hearts, I expect the B1G Ten continues to sit in their lair plotting some way to get Notre Dame to join but I think we can forget about that for at least a decade now. Probably longer if they win the National Title. (I mean, talk about good timing for an Irish resurgence- when does their television contract come up for renewal?) And if you can't land the brand of brands of college football that's a gigantic pustule of frustrating Catholic stubborn football independence in the middle of your geographic footprint, then why bother expanding anymore at all?

At a certain point, we're just going to run out of media markets to grab- which is why I think if the ACC holds Maryland to the full $50 million, I think we'll have run out of places to expand too- at least for now. The Big 12's media deal with a guarantee of rights clause means that anyone that wants to bolt the Big 12 wouldn't be able to take that money with them- so hunting season on the Big 12 is over for at least a decade. The SEC got it's footprint in Texas so they should be happy. The Pac-12 really has nowhere to go unless the Mountain West takes a big jump in quality and the ACC has Pitt and Syracuse and now Louisville and if they can get a better TV deal put together they'll probably be OK too.

But if- IF, the merry-go-round starts up again for the B1G, I'd bet on Georgia Tech being one of our next expansion targets. Atlanta is a big television market and it would put us smack dab in the Deep South- someplace the B1G hasn't been. (And if they're willing to ignore the contiguous footprint rule, I wouldn't rule out Florida State either- assuming they haven't gone to the Big 12. Academics can be fudged. After all Nebraska is a former member of the AAU now.)

(BTW: Rutgers lost to Louisville on Thursday after inexplicably taking a dump against UCONN of all people the week before. There was no joy in Piscataway but I think they'll be OK in the B1G. Might take 'em a little while to get on their feet but they can do it. Though what the F.A.M.I.L.Y acronym on the back of their uniforms stood for is still a mystery. The internet informed me that it was 'forget about me, I love you.'

(The Quiet Man also pointed out that if the Big Ten Network is what's driving this, then it should start expanding it's programming- student developed programming and news perhaps? I agree with that. One can only see so many football games being replayed before it gets boring.)

P.S. Yes I know the Big East added Tulane and ECU. But who cares anymore?

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