Normally when a Pope dies, there's been manuvering and power struggles behind the scenes in the Vatican so you have a pretty good idea of who's going to be at the top of the shortlist for the next Pope- Pope Benedict, in what was probably the shrewdest, smartest move of his Papacy, short-circuited all of that by resigning. There was no notice, no warning, no time to gather allies and build strength and as a result, this Conclave could rightly be seen as being wide open.
Or is it? Everybody always looks for the Church to change at moments like this but one of the hallmarks of the Catholic Church is continuity over change. Don't rock the boat, don't freak out, just keep on, keepin' on and everything will be fine. The Church will endure. And with two millenia under it's belt so far, it's a powerful argument to fight against.
Personally, I think someone younger would be nice. Someone not from Europe would also be nice. Someone who can reform the Curia and adapt the Church and its message to the lightning fast pace of today's world would also be good.
Do I think I'm going to get that? Nope. Odds are, it's going to be an Italian. And if I have to make a bet, it'll be Archbishop Angelo Scola of Milan.
We'll see if I'm right!
FIRST UPDATE: Well, they're locked in... results of the first ballot are expected in about a half hour or so-- BBC has a good liveblog over here and if you're looking for some more in depth coverage of the issues and process, I will give a hearty recommendation to Whispers In The Loggia.
Looking at the live shot from the Vatican on the Beeb, I see that Daylight Savings Time has screwed with the Catholic Church as well. How they're going to see the chimney much less determine what color the smoke is should be interesting.
It's been a couple of days since I wrote the above post but the more I think about it, the more I think it'll be an Italian or some other European... the Church is awfully stubborn and I think despite the convincing arguments for you know, well, a little bit of change and modernization, I'll stick by my prediction of continuity over change. Deep down I'd like to be surprised but I doubt I will be.
SECOND UPDATE: No Pope today, kids. Black smoke over the Vatican.
THIRD UPDATE, WEDNESDAY: Black smoke times two! Still no Pope! (There should be a couple of more votes today before they move into a potential Day 3.) The Cardinals remain undecided on a new Pope but are looking to trade Kevin Kolb for a decent QB and pick off a couple of teams from the A-10 for their basketball league. (Lame joke, I know- but I had too.)
Another friend of the blog, let's call him The Cheesesteak (he lives in Philly) has made his pick for Pope- Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn of Austria. I've heard some good buzz on Schoenborn and he's considered to be an outside shot at claiming the Papacy but an old Vatican hand that could be what they're looking for if they want to reform the Curia. However, his Mom isn't a fan of the notion.
FOURTH UPDATE: WHITE SMOKE KIDS! We gots a Pope! Updates to follow...
Early reaction: not sure... opinion seems to be a little divided right now. A lot of people were expecting this to go into tomorrow at least but CNN is saying that it went to the fifth ballot for the first time in over 100 years which is sort of indicative of, well, medium length. So emerging opinion seems to be that this was quicker than expected but not as quick as people think. Still waiting on his appearance and the official announcement.
FIFTH UPDATE (A BIT DELAYED BECAUSE I HAD TO GET TO WORK): So it's Cardinal Jorge Bergolio of Buenos Aires who has selected the name of Pope Francis I. Before anything else, just take a minute, turn on CNN and take a peek at the guy. This is the first non-European Pope in over 1,000 years and the first South American Pope period. That just happened. Right now. And you got to see something that nobody has seen ever. That alone is worth stepping back and marvelling at- for the rest of your lives, you'll be able to think: I saw that. I saw something nobody's seen for 1,000 years- something nobody's seen ever before. (And that kids, is why I tend to get excited about these things. Not often you get to see history happen right in front of your face.
I'm cautiously optimistic about all of this. Early reports are that Pope Francis has a reputation as a straight shooter, a guy who lives simply (CNN said he gave up his driver and chauffeur when he became Archbishop of Buenos Aires and took the bus to work) and is the first Jesuit ever to be elected Pope- but he's also a Jesuit that took the name Francis, the Patron Saint of the Franciscan Order, the traditional rivals of the Jesuits- indicating perhaps that he wants to build bridges and heal wounds within the church- all of which would be genuinely good things.
The Beeb has it's Live Blog up and there's reaction from MSNBC, Whispers In The Loggia. Ms. Marmite was quick to pipe up with some controversy over the Church's role in the Dirty War in Argentina in the 70s- including some remarkably vague accusations against Bergolio himself. Not having been to Argentina or knowing that many Argentinians (and even if I did, how do you start a conversation like that? 'Hey, about that horrible period of torture, repression, human rights abuses and general shittiness in your country back in the 70s, let's talk about that!') I'm hesitant to comment extensively on this. One the tragedies of Latin America, especially during the Cold War was that organizations like the Church were on both sides of some horrible dictatorships and to me, one of the more unexamined and unknown chaptes in all of that is America's role in a lot of it. The mistrust and the outright unfriendliness in many quarters of Latin America towards the United States undoubtedly stems from that. (Again, how easy it to be friendly with a country that bankrolled the torturers? I'm guess not very.) It's a complex question that some parts of Latin America still struggle with today. I would hope that in this case the Church would have at least acknowledged its role, good or bad (or maybe even good and bad) during this period and sought to move forward with a renewed emphasis on justice for all.
But all in all, I'm cautiously optimistic. When the Church steps outside its comfort zone and does something it's never done before, it's at least an acknowledgement that the people of the Church are looking for some semblance of change. I'm not expecting miracles overnight, but today, even as a lapsed, very bad Catholic, it doesn't feel like the Church is a totally hopeless case anymore. That feeling of optimism could vanish very very quickly- but today, kids, we got a new Pope!
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