Newt Gingrich is predicting that the race for the Republican nomination will, at some point come down to a fight between himself and Mitt Romney...
A month ago, I would have laughed at that. But now... now, I'm not quite so sure. With Christie and Palin taking a pass, the Tea Party, anti-Establishment types needed a place to go, so they turned to Herman Cain, who has gone sky-high in a big way. Whether it's his credentials as a genuine outsider in the race and the elegant simplicity of his 9-9-9 tax plan or his Freudian slip away from Republican orthodoxy on abortion, Cain is looking better and better to a lot of people.
But can he close the deal? He's an interesting guy, no question- but his lack of foreign policy experience is going to be an issue at some point- not to mention his lack of experience at political office. I'm not going to say either point is a dealbreaker for people, but he's gotta work to close the deal and he's got the skills to do just that, I think.
Stress the 'think' part. The fact of the matter is that right now, the majority of Republican voters don't want Romney. But they haven't found their anti-Romney- yet. Electability is going to be more and more of an issue as this goes on. Romney, from his coiffed hair down to his polished loafers looks electable as all giddy-up. But dig a little deeper and you find all kinds of dubious policy positions that Republicans aren't too wild about and things that will be portrayed as flip-flops by Obama and Company. In other words, he's a Kerry Redux waiting to happen.
Perry might have been the anti-Romney, but he's blowing all of his chances, he's a horrible debater and now he's bringing the damn birth certificate back into the mix. That may get some Republicans moist, but I think the average voter has moved the eff on by now. Perry is doneso. He's got the cash to hang around and be annoying, but he's done... he had a shot and blew it.
Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum and though it pains me to say it Gary Johnson are also out of the running...
All of which means that if it's not Romney, then it's up to Cain to close the deal... and if Cain can't close the deal, to my mind Gingrich and Ron Paul are lurking. Gingrich has a lot of baggage- but he knows how to articulate big ideas- and you can't say he's not intelligent. Paul... Paul would be an interesting choice. There would certainly be a clear choice between Paul and Obama- it's whether anyone would go for it that's the real question.
This could be (and probably is) pure bullshit on my part: it could still be Romney. But if Cain can't close the deal- Gingrich and Paul are lurking.
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