Yes, the first votes have been officially tallied in Election 2012, with the tiny town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire casting their ten ballots at midnight tonight, splitting down the middle to give both President Obama and Mittens five votes apiece. The other New Hampshire tiny town to have results in at this hour is Hart's Location, which went 23 votes for President Obama, 9 for Mittens and 2 for Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party.
So what does this mean? Probably not a lot- there doesn't seem to be any of the Presidential ephemera hanging over either of these two towns- unlike the Washington Redskins who lost to Carolina on Sunday- a bad omen for President Obama. (It's eerie but every time the Redskins win a home game before an election, the Incumbent wins. When they lose, the incumbent loses. The only time that hasn't happened is 2004 when Bush The Younger beat John Kerry- so it's uncannily accurate. At least so far.)
It's seven hours until the polls open here in Iowa and while I'm not going to be so bold as to make a prediction two things wouldn't surprise me: a 2004 re-run (incumbent with horrible ratings, a total mess on his hands winning against a decent challenger with a hairdo from New England) or something more akin to 2008 or even 1980 (laaaaaaaaaaaaaaandsllllllllide...!) Undoubtedly, it'll be neither of those two things but we've got a ways to go until we find out.
In the meantime, I need sleep. So see you on the flip side for more updates, kids. And stay tuned!
8:25 AM: I'm AWAKE! And ready to roll...
It's a rainy election day so far but the polls are open and will be open until 9PM tonight. I've seen a lot of lefty friends posting it on Facebook but it's a good reminder for people of all political stripes: DON'T LEAVE THE LINE. As long as you're in line by 9PM, they have to let you vote.
Couple of final polls worth pondering: Rasmussen has Mittens up 49%-48% and the last Battleground Poll has them tied at 47%. Mittens' internals also show him up in IA, NH and OH and tied in WI, PA. There's been a lot of talk about statistics and the accuracy of polls in this election- I'd just remind everyone of Disraeli's old saw: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." At this point, I'm inclined to believe none of them but I will say that an incumbent sitting below 50% and within the margin of error on the day itself is vulnerable in my book. All these easy predictions of President Obama cruising into victory? It ain't necessarily so, kids. (All the more reason to get out and VOTE. If you don't vote, you can't complain.)
Oh... Iowa 2nd District friends, if you wondering just who the heck Alan Aversa is when you're looking at your Congressional candidates, The Quiet Man has you covered there and I'd echo him by adding that next cycle, I'm going to be a lot more curious about just who is showing up on my ballot. (Basically: Aversa is some dude from Arizona that got nominated by petition to run for our Congressional seat. He doesn't live here which is a problem because you've got to establish residency in the District prior to Election Day. This would only be an issue if Aversa wins but I doubt Crazy Pants McGee is going to do that. But since nobody challenged his candidacy, they let him on the ballot... vigilance is the eternal price of keeping Arizonans off your electoral ballot kids. Remember that.)
Now, I think I'm going to go wake up the Missus, find some pants and go vote.
9:43 AM: THE DEED IS DONE!
The Missus and I were 126th and 127th to vote at our Precinct and the lines weren't too bad. I'd say it was a steady stream of people more than an actual line. The poll workers are going to be busy today.
One of these cycles I'm actually going to learn about what Soil and Water Conservation Officers do and make an informed decision on them. Ditto with the Agricultural Council people. I've never had a clue on how to vote for them and still don't so I just make up my mind as I go.
For Supervisors, I went with Neuzil, Harney and one of the write-in people. If you're a Judge anywhere near me, fear not, I voted to let you keep your jobs...
I also wrote in a couple of people. I'm OK with write-in votes. If you genuinely don't know who you want to vote for or you just irritated (like I was) at the choices or the fact that someone is running unopposed for the umpteenth time, I say write in whomever you like. At minimum, it's a way of protesting what annoys you. At maximum it's a nice gesture for your peeps/homies or loved ones.
Onwards!
3:15 PM: Election Power Nap taken, wife delivered safely to work!
2 hours until the first polls close per CNN... I'll be getting my command station set up here at Cigar Central ready for the long haul to start with results. Long lines reported in a lot of places, shenanigans, if there have been any have been dealt with quickly from what I've seen.
In the meantime, enjoy this video:
(I know this is kind of stupid... but it always makes me laugh.)
Some interesting numbers from NRO Online... not sure how accurate these are but if this is what Mittens is looking at, he's got plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Though I take issue with their assessment of Johnson County. Turn out this morning per the PC was around 5% but it was also rainy and miserable as s--t this morning. Think numbers will rebound after people start to get off work.
3:44 PM: Raygun FTW!
The President wrapped things up with a rally in Des Moines last night and East Village merchants were advised they might have to shutdown early because of security. Raygun declined. Then they were told they could stay open if the Secret Service could search their store. They declined that too and then posted this awesome sign... remind me to buy another t-shirt from them soon. (Punchline to all of this: they stayed open.)
4:00 PM: So, New Jersey?
New Jersey has extended email voting to all residents displaced by Hurricane Sandy and they're having major issues with it. The hitch is this: the original law allowed overseas residents and people serving with the military to submit ballots to their county clerks electronically but the each county has to respond to each ballot submission individually.
Needless to say, they're a bit overwhelmed trying to respond to all the submissions. I'm betting voting gets extended here and keep an eye on the Garden State. With 14 electoral votes and the potential for turnout to be seriously depressed by the Hurricane, it could get interesting. Last number I saw had President Obama up by ten. Not sure if the Hurricane could depress turnout enough to flip it to Mittens but it's at least within the realm of possibilities.
4:48 PM: Ready and waiting...
First polls closing in Indiana and Kentucky in less than ten minutes!
First EXITS are out: not sure what to make of these. They tend not to have the best track records (see 2000 for example) but at the same time you can get signals from them that prove to be decisive. For instance, in 2004 when NPR was reporting at like 2 in the afternoon that people were voting on social issues it proved to be a strong indicator that it would go to Bush the Younger and lo and behold it did.
The initial burst doesn't tell us much I don't think. Drudge has Mittens up in NC, FL and President Obama up in OH, MI, PA, NH and NV. VA and CO are toss-ups. If that's right, then it's bad news for Mittens because he needs both VA and CO to have a shot. But baseline is that this is going to be close- Drudge reckons the President has 190 and Mittens has 191 electoral votes locked.
John King just mentioned that CNN's exit polls out of VA has 21% of the electorate identifying as born again Christians... not sure if that's good news or bad news for Mittens but there are reports of long lines in VA and FL. And then there's this pic of the crowd waiting for Mittens to arrive in Pittsburgh.
We've got aways to go. Don't get excited yet.
5:04 PM: Some polls in Indiana and Kentucky are officially closed.
John King is analyzing their exit polls- good news for the President- youth vote held steady at 18% per CNN. If that holds up- and if it's breaking the same way it did in 2008 for the President that's a piece of good news.
Random thought: what if we've just sat through the longest, most painful and most expensive election in our history- and absolutely nothing changes! It's likely that the GOP holds the house and they might chip in to the Democratic majority in the Senate but I doubt they'll take it (Akin in Mizzou, Murdock in Indiana, I'm looking at you, you turds) and like I said, I've been tasting a hint of 2004 today. Wouldn't surprise me if the President scrapes through tonight.
5:52 PM: Coming up on the first big wave of poll closings...
First of all: check this out... nice collection of election tracking links. They're all still pontificating about what the Exit Polls might mean but it's very, very early yet and we don't have a lot of numbers to work with.
Vermont for Obama, Kentucky for Mittens. Virgina, Georgia, South Carolina and Indiana still not officially called. Indiana trending Mittens per exits, Virgina tied.
Virginia is going to be fascinating to watch CNN Exit polls have:
President up in the DC Suburbs (no surprise)
But Mittens has a narrow lead in the DC Exurbs/N Virginia
Richmond area is tight but a narrow lead for President Obama...
Tighter than expected on the economic issue-- and everyone is preaching caution. If early exit polls in 2004 were to be believed, we'd have had a President Kerry.
6:10 PM: Numbers, numbers, numbers...
WOW: early numbers out of Florida have the President up ten. If that holds up baaaaaaaaaaad news for Mittens. (Oh: not much in yet. Orlando is throwing the early numbers off.)
Indiana still trending for Mittens. No official calls yet. (Watch Vigo County, Indiana... another example of Presidential ephemera. They've voted for the winners since 1890 and only been wrong twice. Last time was 1952.)
Super long lines in New Hampshire- including lots of first-time voters.
Indiana officially called for Mittens.
6:30 PM: North Carolina, West Virginia, Ohio poll closings...
West Virginia officially called for Mittens.
Early Exit Polls have North Carolina tied, the President up 51-48 in Ohio. Again: very EARLY exit polls. Don't get excited.
Florida has tightened up again- President up 52-48 but the Panhandle has yet to come in. Virginia has Mittens up 58-40- very very very early.
South Carolina officially called for Mittens.
Some Senate news:
Bernie Sanders of VT and Joe Manchin of WV projected to win re-election. Indiana and VA too close to call...
7:00 PM: Big wave of poll closings about to hit...
Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, MA, CT, RI, 3 out of 4 in ME officially called for the President.
Oklahoma officially called for Mittens.
ANGUS KING WINS IN MAINE!!!! This is kick-ass... he'll probably caucus with the Democrats but the more Independents the better.
7:30 PM: Another wave of poll closings...
Arkansas and Tennessee officially called for Mittens.
73-64 Mittens in the Electoral College...
Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia are too early to call. Waiting on the panhandle in Florida and I don't know why we're sitting on Alabama or Mississippi right now. But I guess they're super early numbers wise as well.
Watch New Jersey!!! It's early, but Mittens is up.
**KEEP IN MIND: Virginia, New Hampshire reported LOOOOOOOOOONG lines... if people were still in line when the polls close, they get to vote. So voting still might be going on.
Alabama FINALLY officially called for Mittens...
CT Senate: Linda MacMahon loses... Vince MacMahon could not be reached for comment.
8:00 PM: BIG WAVE OF CLOSINGS! Waaaahooooooooo!
Wolf, why haven't we called Mississippi yet?
Now we have! ND, SD, WY, 3 out of 5 in NB, KS, TX, LA, MS officially called for Mittens.
And... New York, New Jersey and Michigan for the President. Think the Mittens camp might be disappointed by Michigan but while Michigan was tightening up it wasn't as nearly as open as Ohio and Pennsylvania...
Sigh... Republicans keep the House. Galloping shock.
Fox and the other networks are calling WI and PA for Obama... CNN is being a little more conservative about things.
9:00 PM: IOWA POLLS CLOSED!
If Florida goes to the President, this is all over. Mittens needs Virginia and North Carolina too. New Hampshire would be nice and I'm waiting on ME-2nd District. Still nothing...
OMG: MITT ROMNEY WON UTAH!!!!!!! Least SURPRISING PROJECTION EVER!
New Hampshire to President Obama...
9:00 GUT CHECK: I'm thinking it's getting very very thin for Mittens. I think my 2004 feeling earlier today is going to be correct. My second prediction- that we're going to have sat through the most expensive, painfully long election in American history only to have nothing at all change also looks like it's going to be correct. Word out of both campaigns is that they're expecting Mittens to take Florida by less than 100K but per CNN there's not a lot left to count and without Florida, Mittens is done.
Claire McCaskill projected to win in Mizzou. Thank God.
CNN is showing Mittens up in Wisconsin. Not sure it'll last.
IOWA Results...
DM Register has a good site up.
Been following Johnson County Auditor as well...
Early trends: Justice Center is running below the 60% it needs in Johnson County- but it's still early.
Vilsack, Braley and Boswell are all up early too. Still a long way to go.
Minnesota for the President, Arizona for Mittens.
10:00 PM: All over but the crying...
It's very very thin now for Mittens.
CA, HI, WA to the President.
ID, MT to Mittens.
Democrats keep the Senate... see my 9:00 Gut Check: most expensive election in history and nothing changes. Bank on it!
NM for the President!
OR for the President!
MO for Mittens!
IOWA UPDATE:
Braley and Loebsack are safe, I'd call them good.
Vilsack is down against King but still within striking distance...
Justice Center not looking good for Johnson County.
IA for the President! (Though to be fair, the guy practically lived here.)
MINNESOTA UPDATE:
MPR has live results... 55% against the Marriage Amendment so far. Keep it up MN!
10:18 PM: ALL OVER!
OH for President Obama... he's over the top and re-elected!
Still some votes out there but I'm wrapping this sucker up for the night. Marriage Amendment in Minnesota is looking decent- like it's going down so I hope that holds. There's Marriage Equality on the ballot in MD and ME and WA... marijuana legalization on the ballot in CO, OR and WA so keep an eye out. Will probably publish some final thoughts on the aftermath tomorrow...
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