8:39 AM, CST: This is the first time I've ever attempted this sort of thing, so if it doesn't go too well, please forgive me. I'll be updating this as I go throughout the day-- but in the meantime, the polls are open and voting is underway.
11:22 AM, CST: Some possible scenarios for what could emerge from this election via the Independent. And former UKIP Party Leader Nigel Farage was involved in a light plane crash this morning- he's ok though.
4:57 PM, CST: Polls are now closed, and the first results are trickling in, with the Beeb Projecting a hung parliament with the Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority. One seat in so far, with Labour drawing first blood.
5:43 PM, CST: An interesting trend emerging already: what is up with the exit polls? Both the Beeb and now the Guardian have the Conservatives coming within a nose hair of an absolute majority, which is a complete reverse of the trends we've seen in polling thus far (which had the Conservatives anywhere from 3-5% points ahead of Labour and the LibDems, which at my last recollection were tied at about 28% or so.)
A couple of more things to consider: first is that the pollsters have read this completely wrong. Which has happened before- 1992's election had Neil Kinnock all set to sweep into power with Labour at his back, but there was a massive glitch in the media somewhere and John Major and the Conservatives squeaked in again. Time is going to tell how accurate this is, but I'm wondering (and this is the second point) how much of a factor last minute voting played into these numbers. If a good chunk/almost majority of people made up their minds in the voting booth itself, then it could explain the fall off in LibDem numbers and the shock projection that they'd actually lose 3 seats, despite beating the pants of Labour in nearly every opinion poll I'd seen. Which might make Cleggmania more of a flirtation than anything else. (Like those 'Dated Dean, Married Kerry' pins from 2004. Though 'marrying' Kerry didn't do squat.)
The latest score: 3 seats Labour, nil-nil to the other two parties.
6:45 PM, CST: We'll we're up to 5 seats now. One for Sinn Fein and one for the DUP have been declared in Northern Ireland. As we go throughout the night, I'll be watching about 15 seats that impact where various members of my extended family live (or my best guess as to their constituencies) and posting those results as well. Looking at the projected results time on most of these, I'd say once we hit 9:00 PM CST, the real numbers are going to start coming in. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have yet to get on the board, however.
One reason to keep half an eye on results from the 'regions'- but Northern Ireland especially: if the Democratic Unionists (Protestant) get enough seats, they could help push the Tories that much closer to the magic number of 326 seats and an absolute majority.
Pasta's on the boil and it's going to be a long night, however.
7:30 PM, CST: Things are really starting to move now: Labour has 12, the Conservatives 4 and the LibDems are just behind with 3 seats. The DUP has 3, Sinn Fein 2 and the Alliance Party and Plaid Cymuru have snuck onto the board with one apiece. The big news right now: DUP Leader Peter Robinson went down to defeat in Belfast East... (Labour has picked up 5 more seats since I've been writing this. 17-4-3 is the split now. And Gordon Brown has kept his seat in Kirkaldy- he's live on the Beeb now.) Problems at polling stations continue.
7:37 PM, CST: I'm going to be updating this particular update as we go, since it's a list of constituencies where the extended family live. And if it's not precisely their constituency, it's my best guess, geographically speaking:
Birmingham Northfield (Cousin Claire, Hubs Matthew): Labour HOLD, majority of 2,782
Manchester Central (Cousin Christopher, Anthony): Labour HOLD, majority of 10,439
Aldershot (Aunt Rose, Uncle Alf): Conservative HOLD, majority of 5,586
Saffron Walden (Uncle Kelv, Auntie Mat): Conservative HOLD, majority of 15,242
Weston-Super-Mare (Auntie Charl, Uncle Guy, Cousin Ed): Conservative HOLD, majority of 2,691
Leeds NW (Uncle Peter, Auntie Tracy): LibDem HOLD, majority of 9,103
Leeds NE (Uncle Victor): Labour HOLD, majority of 4,545
Leeds Central (Cousin Rebecca): Labour HOLD, majority of 10,645
Dorset West (Granny): Conservative HOLD, majority of 3,923
Swindon North (Auntie Cecilia): Conservative GAIN, majority of 7,060
Swindon South (Uncle Steven): Conservative GAIN, majority of 3,544
Nottingham East (Cousin Emily): Labour HOLD, majority of 6,969
Bristol East (Cousin Alice): Labour HOLD, majority of 3,722
Hackney and Shoreditch (Cousin Pegs): Labour HOLD, majority of 14,288
Cambridge (Cousin Nick): LibDem HOLD, majority of 6,792
8:31 PM, CST: It looks like someone called in sick tonight, so my dream of liveblogging this into the wee hours of the morning at Studio Arts has gone by the wayside. Instead, I'll be stuck in Dirty Burge, patrolling the dorms. But hey-ho, carry on...
9:05 PM, CST: Heading into the 9 o'clock hour, the results are coming in fast now. The Conservatives are now ahead in terms of share of the vote (32.9% to Labour's 28.8%) however, they still haven't passed Labour in seat totals just yet, being just a step behind, with the split being 82-78-10 to Labour right now. (The LibDems just broke into double digits for the first time tonight.)
9:10 PM, CST: Looks like the exit polls weren't too wonky after all. 18-20% of the vote is pretty average for the Liberal Democrats, which is where they're sitting right now. They've made one gain on the night, taken one loss and have a total of 10 seats right now, but results from the far SW of England are still to come in, and that's usually solid LibDem Territory. We'll see what happens tonight...
9:22 PM, CST: Rest easy, everyone. The results for Birmingham Ladywood are in and Labour has held the seat. [Insert adolescent snickering and bad jokes/innuendos here.]
9:25 PM, CST: The Conservatives have broken into triple digits and have passed Labour in total number of seats and % of the vote. The split is now 102-100-14 to the Conservatives.
9:45 PM, CST: What happened to the LibDems? I think that's the question that a lot of people are going to be asking tonight. A month of CleggMania- poll numbers that broke heights unheard of by the LibDems since the 80s and it hasn't translated into extra support at the ballot box. %-wise, they're pushing their gains slowly but surely into the 1% territory, but so far 22% is pretty much par for the course for them.
A couple of things to keep in mind: television debates don't usually move the vote that much- even over here on this side of the pond. Rather, they tend to be echo chambers that just convince fence-sitters to vote for people they were going to probably be voting for to begin with. The fact that this was the first time there had been televisual debates in Britain may have over-exaggerated their impact. And then there's the usual suspects that dog third parties: people think it's a wasted vote, people think they can't win/govern, people change their mind at the last minute. Unless something changes drastically in the overnights, there's going to be quite the post-mortem in LibDem high command tomorrow morning.
The split right now: 135-116-23 to the Conservatives.
10:07 PM, CST: Have to start wrapping things up for the night before I head to work. I'm not sure yet, but damn me if the Conservatives might be in reach of a majority somehow. Some regional breakdowns: Wales-- 26 Labour, 6 Conservative, 3 apiece to Plaid Cymuru and the LibDems with 2 constituencies left to come in. Northern Ireland-- 7 to the DUP, 4 to Sinn Fein, 3 to the SDLP, 1 to the Alliance and 1 to 'Other' with 2 constituencies left to come in. Scotland-- 38 Labour, 6 apiece to the Scottish Nationalists and LibDems and 1 to the Conservatives with 8 constituencies left to come in.
10:16 PM, CST: Final Split of the Night-- 168-133-26 to the Conservatives and we're about at the halfway point of the evening. I'll be back in the morning for final numbers, analysis and wrap-up.
May 7th, 2010--7:17 AM, CST: Well, as expected we have a hung Parliament- Britain's first since 1974 and as the last results trickle in, the permutations and the frantic mathematics of coalition building will surely get underway. LibDem Leader Nick Clegg has said that the Tories, having won more seats have the 'first right' to form the government, but British Constitutional 'conventions' give the sitting government and Gordon Brown the first crack at it.
The Magic Number is 326 and with 18 seats still out, Labour would need to make up a balance of 73 seats. Assuming things go magically, we can throw in 3 from the SDLP, 1 from the Greens (their first seat EVER in the UK. Congrats, guys!) and 54 from the Liberal Democrats to get us 58 seats and a total of 311 seats. The overwhelming majority (15) of the last 18 seats would have to break Labour's way for them to get to 326.
The Tories, sitting at 298 seats currently are in far better position to get to the magic number. They can count on (probably) 8 seats from the DUP in Northern Ireland and maybe 54 from the Liberal Democrats to put them over the top. They're going to have a less mangled time of putting together a coalition than Labour is.
The Wild Cards in all of this: the Nationalist Parties. Between them, Plaid Cymuru and the SNP have 9 seats. Perhaps mutual distaste for the Conservatives can throw them in a grand mess of a Labour coalition and get the magic number (right now, anyways) up to 320. But given the fact that North of the Border, the SNP and Labour are bitter rivals and west of the Border, it's much the same situation, it'd be a strange day indeed if LibDems joined with PC and the SNP and Labour just to keep the Tories out. But we'll see what the final results bring and what the coming days of political shenanigans bring as well. I think Cameron and the Tories will probably scrape something together in the end...
3:21 PM, CST: Looks like Cameron is going to make an offer to the Liberal Demcrats first and foremost. If he can get them on board, he'll be the next Prime Minister. The math has also settled down a bit now that all but one of seats (voting was delayed in Thirsk and Malton due to the death of one of the candidates.)
But we'll do math in a minute- question now becomes: does David Cameron have an offer that the LibDems are willing to take? Unlike Labour, which is willing to maybe hold a vote on electoral reform, the Tories don't seem too hot on that, which I think is going to be the major sticking point in negotiations between the two parties. Another option for the LibDems is to not officially go into government with the Tories, but to agree to support them on major votes, like the Queen's Speech or The Budget- which would enable the Tories to govern, more or less. Here's my thing: part of the problem the LibDems have is that people don't know if they can govern effectively. It's a perception thing. Electoral reform aside, actually going into government and helping to make policy can only help them in the long run, especially if they prove to be capable coalition partners.
The math shakes down like this: the split is 306-258-57 to the Conservatives. The Scottish Nationalists don't seem to want to play with anyone right now, but Plaid Cymuru and the Welsh Nationalist haven't ruled out doing a deal with the Conservatives. If Labour can get the 57 LibDems, 3 from the SDLP and 1 from the Green Party, that puts them @319. If the Tories can pick up the Unionists and maybe Plaid Cymuru, they get to 318, which would put both parties under the magic number, but give Labour the slenderest of majorities.
3:50 PM, CST: And with this, I'm going to officially wind-up my first attempt at a live-blog. I do hope it's entertained and maybe even informed some of you a little bit, because I've had fun doing it. Stay tuned to The Cigar for updates on Coalition talks and the like and thanks for playing, folks. Tip your waitresses.
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