On The Brink, Foreign Policy Mood Ring Set To Magenta

The foreign policy mood ring remains set firmly at magenta, kids- which means I remain, mildly displeased.  And somewhat concerned.   The fact that everyone seems to have been caught off guard by Russia's invasion of the Crimea underlines how flat-footed the West was caught by this.  No one was expecting this.  I saw a scornful Tweet wondering why we were spending $50 billion on our intelligence community when they couldn't even get this right.  And I know, the intelligence community gets it right far more than anybody realizes, but man, when they screw up, they seem to be screwing up bigger and bigger these days and I think this would certainly qualify as a screw up.

My gut says that how this crisis plays out is going to depend on the next forty-eight hours or so.  I think the World might be content to let Russia have the Crimea.   Let Putin wag his pickle at his countrymen and flex his abs for the cameras and save some face.  The Ukrainians won't be particularly pleased by this (nor should they be) and it seems to fly in the face of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which the US, UK and Russia pledged to guarantee Ukrainian independence in exchange for them turning over their nukes to the Russians.  But I think the World could live with it- no one wants a war with Russia and no one really really wants the US and Russia to get in the ring together.  We got through the Cold War avoiding such a scenario (more or less) and I think everyone would prefer to keep avoiding it now.

So, I think if Putin wants the Crimea, he'll get it. And maybe he should- after all, it was handed to the Ukraine on a flimsy bit of whimsy by Khruschev in the 50s and Russia does have a much longer historical claim to the Peninsula that the Ukrainians do.  (In such a circumstance, if the Ukraine is forced to hand over the Crimea, the first thing I would do is shut off the power-happily controlled by Ukraine- and the internet and if Moscow complains tell them to go spit- if they want the Crimea, they should damn well pay the electric bill.)

However a new wrinkle has emerged which I think is making everyone very nervous indeed- namely that ousted President Viktor Yanukovich, when he fled to Moscow also asked for their assistance and the troops that came along with it- which would be enough, especially for Putin to potentially justify a full scale invasion to put his guy back in charge. That would change the nature of this crisis exponentially.   Some people think that Putin is already biting off more than he could chew- and if he wants to go for either a full scale invasion or even a partition-by-force of the Ukraine he might be biting off more than he can chew.  This isn't Chechnya- anything bigger than what he's doing now risks dragging in the Baltic States, Poland and what I'm sure would be a posse of Eastern European countries all of whom had less than warm and fuzzy experiences under the Soviets and all of whom would probably want Russia to go away.

The Administration is making haste slowly toward economic sanctions- which is excellent enough, I suppose, but it's not going to get the Russians out of the Crimea- but the long term economic impact could be rough on the Russians- and that might turn the tide against them.  Time seems to think that this is already bad news for Putin- and while I think that's premature, I think, such predictions could very well turn out to be true- especially given Putin's ambitions for a 'Eurasian Union' of some kind.  (Invading the people you want to be in your 'club' doesn't tend to inspire goodwill.)

Unfortunately, it's also not good news for the Administration's Russia reset- which is pretty much in pieces at this point.  (When you've lost The Washington Post and you're a Democratic President, you're pretty much on the precipice of being done. Stick a fork in you.)  Russian help in the Middle East?  I wouldn't take it from this guy.  Russian help here, Russian help there?  Nope. Wouldn't trust 'em any further than I could throw them right now.   Piling on the economic and diplomatic pressure is the right move for the United States- though I would point out that any comments about how 'nations shouldn't invade another country for trumped up reasons' should probably maybe, for the sake of our credibility, be avoided- after all, Iraq turned out not to have any WMD- so pots, kettles, etc, etc. 

I saw a remarkably cogent and coherent comment online today (for a refreshing change of pace) that suggested this:

What we should do is:
1. Don't go to the G-8 meeting in Sochi
2. Pointedly have a -7 meeting in Poland.
3. Kick Russia out of the G-8, it never belonged anyway.
4. Conduct some small but visible exercises with the Poles and Lats.
5. restart the ABM plans for Poland (if they'l have us.
6. Support the Polish FM and read his wife (Anne Applebaum, the WaPo reporter) for insights into Polish thinking. Her Hubby will be the next Polish PM. That is why she became a Pole. To clear the decks for his election.
7. Pay attention to Merkel. Together with the Poles, back their play...

All of this should be done, depending on how far Putin wants to take this.  It doesn't commit us to ground troops (nor should it- that would be waaaaaaaay waaaaay too dicey) but what it does do is commit us to backing our allies in the region whether logistically, diplomatically or materially to deal with this.  I like this- it's smart, but not overly muscular or militaristic and it feels like the right prescription for the problem.  Neo-conservative adventurism has probably left a bad taste in the mouths of many Americans and for good reason- but when you're in the ring against Joe Frazier, it helps if you can float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.   We don't have to bomb the shit out of everything to be Ali here.

Russia has reportedly issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian forces in the Crimea to surrender or face all-out military assault.  The deadline is in a couple of hours or so- so if anything is going to start, it will be around 9:00 PM our time.  My thoughts and prayers are with the Ukraine tonight.

In the meantime, I remain unmoved in my convictions.  We shouldn't be the world's policemen, nor should we invade everyone to make a point, but where people are protesting peacefully and asking for democracy, freedom, liberty and self-determination, I think it's in our interests to at least help out however we can. Wouldn't it be nice if the whole 'give us your tired, your poor, your huddled masses, yearning to free' wasn't just something they scratched on the Statue of Liberty.  What if we actually stood by that.  What if we made it more than a sentiment but an underpinning of our foreign policy.  Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee and whenever people across the world want democracy, freedom, liberty, the rule of law and basic human rights-shouldn't they at least know that the United States is with them and will do whatever we can to help?

Gosh darn it if that doesn't make me feel the tiniest bit patriotic!  That's a foreign policy I would get behind- but if you'll excuse me, kids, I need to go drink a soda and wash some of this idealism off of me before I end up eating fried food on a stick and listening to a Toby Keith album.