Last week, two countries more or less blew up both for entirely different reasons and with entirely different implications. Of the two, I'd say Ukraine is a far more interesting situation from a geo-political point of view than Venezuela. That's not to say that Venezuela isn't equally as important- it's just that thanks to a government clampdown on information and a general disinterest from the western media, it's a hell of a lot harder to get a clear picture on what's going on down there, whereas whole trees and barrels of ink are being poured into analysis of what's going on in Ukraine.
So what's up with Ukraine? Well, a lot of things for a start but basically (the TL;DR version for everyone): it's an east versus west thing. No really, that's what it comes down to: the eastern half of the country is ethnically Russian, pro-Russian and wants closer ties with Russia, while the Western half is ethnically more Ukranian, pro-western and wants to eventually join the European Union. So, welcome back my friends to the show that never ends, because this is a classic geopolitical chess match going on and now that the Olympics are over life could get a lot more interesting here.
Why? Well if push comes to shove, the Russians are going to want to keep the Crimea for a start- their Black Sea Fleet is based out of there and they're very attached to it. However, the ethnic Tatars in Crimea aren't fans of that notion- having not exactly had a warm and ticklish experience under Moscow's benevolent rule back in the day. So that could get interesting.
If push really comes to shove, they could partition the whole damn country. Eastern Ukraine wants closer ties with Russia and the Western Ukraine doesn't? Grab the chainsaw boys, we're going to cut us up a country!
Do I think this will come to military action? No, I don't- not yet anyway. People are saying this is bad news for Putin and it really is if you think about it. After the Orange Revolution in 2004-2005, then President Yushchenko and his Prime Minister the now freed and running for President Yulia Tymoshenko (not exactly carrying a halo herself, despite the hair) failed to deliver on the promises of the Revolution and pro-Russian and now former (or still current, depending on who you talk too) President Yanukovich came to power and Putin hoped that would complete a pro-Russian tilt and keep Ukraine firmly on their side of things, but when Yanukovich kyboshed a major trade deal with the EU last fall, that kicked off the latest round of protests and when he tried to send in police to clear them out and they didn't leave (and more to the point, the military wouldn't step in), that was pretty much curtains for him.
What's ahead? A fascinating, fascinating chess match with a whole country in the balance. I think the probability of military intervention is low right now, but partition is still a possibility and look for Russia's words to be more bellicose than usual but I think their actions will be muted. After all, the opposition took over after the Orange Revolution and it quickly ran aground. Playing a long game could be an option- but Moscow can't stifle Ukranian aspirations for EU membership forever. They either have to offer something better or figure out a way to let them do that and still get what they want out of the deal- and Putin is player enough if not to get there, then certainly to grope his way toward something in that direction.
A different kettle of chip is underway in Venezuela- it's sort of pissing me off because far, far too little attention is being to the violence down there. With the death of Hugo Chavez last March, his successor, Nicolas Maduro has proven to have little of the charisma that made Chavez so successful and any gains that Chavez and his revolution have made seem to be illusory- inflation is running around 56%, there are food shortages, the government can't keep the lights on and then there's the crime rate: the government has stopped publishing official crime stats, but per Wikipedia (how much you can trust them, I don't know, but it's still eye-popping stuff) A person is murdered in Venezuela every 21 minutes. In Caracas alone, in 2013 the murder rate was 122 homicides per 100,000 residents.
So going out on a limb, I'd say if these sources are anything to go on, it sounds like Venezuela is going to hell in a handbasket, the government (sitting on a shitload of oil, by the way) can't or won't do anything about it and people are pissed off and fed up. Getting up-to-date info is a challenge when it comes to these protests as the government has clamped down hard on the media- but as this article from FP Magazine points out, that only made it appear to the rest of the world that the government has something to hide. The arrest and detention of opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez doesn't help that image either.
Will Venezuela go the way of Ukraine? It's hard to tell. Reaction from Latin American leaders (at least in the media up here) seems to have been somewhat muted and given the close economic ties fostered between Venezuela and Cuba under Chavez, Cuba certainly has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Though in reality, it may be simpler than that: Chavez and Venezuela have long represented a more bellicose and radical brand of leftism throughout the region- in stark contrast to the more muted, productive center-left governments in Chile and Brazil. Presidents in places like Bolivia, Nicaragua and Argentina might be doing their best to ignore the situation because they worry they could be next.
My gut instinct says that while Ukraine was the matter of a miscalculation (a deadly one for the protesters killed) by the government, Venezuela is going to be more of a long game. People are getting fed up- if the opposition can stick together and try and broaden their coalition to pick off disaffected Chavistas that are out there, they could flip the script. Venezuela certainly doesn't deserve to be ignored the way it is by the Western media- so, friends, Google is your friend. Check up on our friends down south from time to time- dig on Twitter and social media. If the World pays attention, we might, just maybe, be able to help a little. At the very least they'll know someone is paying attention. (This Gawker piece has some good links to videos of protests and the comments are somewhat instructional and might give some insight into why this is being ignored- Progressives/Lefties in the media don't want to harsh their mellow too much by pointing out a purportedly Socialist regime in a state of slow collapse.)
It gets frustrating sometimes, turning on a television in this country and trying to find out what's going on in the world. News networks- and this shouldn't come as a galloping shock to anyone- are in the business of ratings and entertainment, commentary and analysis and if it doesn't get ratings, they don't report it. Which is shitty, because there are things going on in the world that are worth paying attention too and we shouldn't have to fight through corporate media bullshit to get there. But then you run into the problem of how time consuming it is to dig through the internet- or at least that's what people think. Turning on the television or reading a newspaper is the path of least resistance and in our hectic, busy lives I can understand that, but there's some serious shit going down in the world. So click that link on Twitter, do a Google search and take ten minutes to get your knowledge on.
We live in interesting times. Try not to miss them.
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