Final Predictions

I was going to expound some thoughts on what I think should happen after the election in terms of righting the stumbling course the country seems to find itself on these days, but I honestly don't think I could fit it all into one. Education reform? Health care? The size of government? Maybe, if I do some reading and some research I can say something intelligent on all of these topics, but not all in one post, so I'm going to move on and just go straight to my final predictions for election night. I'll revisit this post after Election Day to see how I did, but in the meantime, let's run down the scorecard.

IA-Governor: Branstad (R) will win this one easily, but by nowhere near the margin suggested. If Culver pulls the upset, it'll be titanic.

IA-Senate: Grassley (R) Another obvious choice. Conlin has proven to be disappointing as a candidate.

IA-2nd District: Miller-Meeks (R) haven't seen recent polling on this and Loebsack went hard negative in such a ridiculous way that it made him look weak, so you have to think that whatever numbers they're reading, they're not good ones. I'm thinking Iowa sends its first woman to Congress in a upset special.

IA-3rd District: Zaun (R) Boswell goes down on this one. Braley and Loebsack could join him very easily, but Boswell is fer sure going down out of the three.

IA-1st District: Braley (D) I'm probably wrong on this one- but I think the Dems either keep 1st or 3rd District and probably not both- and I'm sorry, but I just don't like Ben Lange and his ads all that much.

IC-21 Ordinance: I think the Townies come up big in this one and save the 21 only ordinance- the much bally-hooed early voting numbers seem to have faded from media attention and I'm thinking Iowa City doesn't shoot itself in the foot on this one.

Judicial Retention: One, maybe two of these judges are probably going to go down- I'd be surprised if all three do- but either way none of us should be happy if any of them get taken out. The short sightedness of people in politicizing our judiciary really pisses me off sometime. After all, if Conservatives can oust a judge for a decision they don't like, how are they going to react when liberals start ousting judges for decisions that Conservatives love and liberals hate? This sets a bad precedent which has the potential to cut both ways.

MN-Governor: Dayton (D) Horner's support is sagging a bit, but if Republicans don't think Emmer has a serious chance, they might swing in a big way to Horner. If they don't, then Dayton has this in the bag. Boo.

MN-1st District: Walz (D) I'm sticking with Walz. I think if this District does somehow flip back to GOP status, Rochester will prove key. If the GOP can pull a win in Roch, it could be curtains for Walz.

CA-Governor: Brown (D) I don't see Whitman and Fiorina pulling a twofer off, I really don't. I think Brown edges Whitman- he's been trending upwards in the polls I'm seeing, but conversely, Whitman has tons of money to spend.

CA-Senate: Fiorina (R) Carly takes down Boxer... she's got money to spend and so far, there hasn't been an scandal like Whitman's 'I fired my illegal housekeeper' thing yet that I've found. Voters are pissed and someone's gotta pay. Why not Boxer?

CA-Prop 19: YES Hmmmm... I've been pondering this one and think that maybe a GOP wave could push pot over the top. Existing pot growers in Northern Cali are against this because it's going to cut into their business. Libertarian minded Conservatives could see a sensible revenue stream for exploitation- but then again, I haven't been following the press coverage on this, so I don't know.

WA-Senate: Di Rossi (R) Meh, who do I know in Washington State? Not many peeps, but Patty Murray is vulnerable and I think if the GOP rumbles out east and in the Midwest it'll drive up GOP votes out west and could put him over the top. But Washington is pretty reliably blue, so I think this would be an upset.

CO-Governor: Tancredo (I) Scary as this sounds, it looks like the Republican candidate Maes is tanking hard and Hickenlooper could get nipped at the end in this one. MAJOR upset special!

CO-Senate: Buck (R) Primarily because his last name is Buck. I really could care less about this race.

PA-Senate: Toomey (R) I don't know which would be the bigger upset- Toomey holding on for the win or Sestak nipping him at the finish line. I'm going to go with the wider trends favoring the GOP nationwide and stick with Toomey on this one.

FL-Senate: Rubio (R) The darling of the Tea Party emerges from this three-way mess.

SC-Governor: Haley (R) The first of the Mama Grizzlies takes the state house.

AK-Senate: Murkowski (I) Joe Miller is crazy and the good people of Alaska just aren't that crazy. Sorry.

DE-Senate: Coons (D) The good people of Delaware aren't witches.

NV-Senate: Angle (R) Another darling of the Tea Party takes down Harry Reid in the biggest win of the night.

CT-Senate: Blumenthal (D) I really hope I'm wrong on this one somehow, because I caught some of this debate on C-SPAN and Linda MacMahon looked far more impressive than Richard Blumenthal. But I don't think she gets the win...

KY-Senate: Paul (R) Two Pauls in Congress? We can't go wrong, even though Father Paul seems a little saner than the son.

WI-Senate: Johnson (R) Wisconsin goes RED! Feingold goes down...

House: Republican... it's not a question of if, but by how much. Do I think we're looking at apocalyptic level of gains for Republicans? I think that depends on how right the voting trends and the numbers floating around there are. If the polls are off, then they could be masking a massive GOP wave or overestimating it.

Senate: 50-50 Tie I'm thinking outside the box on this one and think this is a real possibility- the Republicans would have to essentially run the table to get a solid working majority and Washington, Cali, Delaware and CT could all go Democrat to preserve their tenuous hold on the Senate.

...and we'll see just how wrong I was on all this after the dust settles on November 3rd!