As predicted, the debate changed the nature of this election. I incorrectly predicted that it was going to break the election wide open, because as it turned out- that's what this week is for. Let me explain what I mean by that: with David Cameron and Gordon Brown throwing shots at each other during the debate last week, the door was open to Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg to first of all, introduce himself to the electorate and second of all, provide a coherent alternative to both the Labour Party and the Tories. On that score- mission very much accomplished. The latest polling data has the Liberal Democrats pushing Labour into third- and in some polls leading by just a hair as well.
The 29% mark for the Liberal Democrats that I've seen would be some of their highest poll numbers since 1983- if not ever and would definately push the election into 'hung parliament' territory- with the Liberal Democrats being major players in a coalition instead of just minor nuisances. Three problems now confront the Liberal Democrats and this is their week to either rise to the occasion or the let the opportunity they've waited decades for slip through their fingers. What do I mean by that?
Well, Nick Clegg has another debate Thursday night- and this time, you can bet that both Brown and Cameron will be paying attention and gunning for him. Their job this week is to marginalize the Liberal Democrats as much as possible. Clegg's job is to win the next debate- but more importantly, defend the policies of his party in a coherent, charming and telegenic manner. Last week he could be 'the man above the fray' but this week, he's going to be in it. Can he take a punch? Can he deliver a punch? Hopefully Monday morning, the Liberal Democrats come out hard and fast against attacks from both Tories and Labour and push back as hard as they can. If they go on the offensive fast- and if Clegg can hold his own and either win (preferably) or at least draw, then by next week, this election can truly be a three horse race, so to speak.
It's a tall order, but the Liberal Democrats run into a couple of more problems: with the first past the post voting system, the polling preference (29%) does not translate into a similar number of seats. It's a disconnect they're working to reform, but these numbers are going to have to go higher for anyone to really start putting money on Clegg forming the next government. Hand in hand with that, they have to overcome the idea that a vote for them is a wasted vote. It ain't- the British political system doesn't have 'state' levels, so it's really local and London- or local and Edinburgh or local and Cardiff, some combination of those things. And on the local level, where a lot of power is exercised- it really is a three party system. The task now is to persuade voters that what oftentimes isn't a wasted vote for them on the local level won't be on national level either.
Either way: this is their week. They need to be careful of expectations: after all, one of their leaders famously told them in '83 I believe to 'go back to their constituencies and prepare for government.' Yeah, um wrong there. But if they can defend against what's sure to be a withering barrage from Labour and the Tories and if Clegg can produce another solid performance at the debate Thursday, an election that's teetering on being a three horse race, will actually be a three-horse race.
All of this leads us into the FAMILY STRAW POLL: being the good little blogger I am, when the election kicked off, I figured I would do some digging, email all the relatives I could and actually ask them (since they live in the UK) what they thought of the quadrenniel tooth pulling that is their election cycle. The sample I got back was completely unscientific (but thanks to all who responded!), but a few trends emerged:
1. Not a lot of love for Labour.
2. Couple of votes for the Liberal Democrats. (Or maybe the Greens)
3. More for the Tories.
4. Fence-sitters, who are not enthusiastic about anyone in particular.
And that last point to me is key: there seems to be a feeling out there in the UK that no one wants Brown and Labour to continue, but people just aren't sold on the Tories quite yet (and their Chancellor George Osbourn, especially)- and if people aren't sure on the economic arguments presented by the Tories, it's going to be a huge liability- especially with the British recovery as fragile as it is. This lack of enthusiasm for the Tories could also be why the Liberal Democrats are seeing a spike: any port in a storm, after all.
The Latest Polls:
Conservatives: 33%
Liberal Democrats: 30%
Labour: 28%
Others: 9%
Anyway, it should be an increasingly exciting week. A fun ride, ahead, I think!
**For the Scots-persons who might be reading this, the SNP has launched their manifesto and is pushing their case for a hung parliament. Read all about it, here.
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