Monster Raving Loony Tuesdays #2

This is going to be the week that sets the tone for the rest of the UK election. David Cameron (seen above) and the Conservatives have a real chance to break this thing wide open- or continue to slip towards either a continued (but much reduced) Labour majority or, the more likely outcome- a hung parliament.

Why? Well, the first ever televised debates between the leaders of the major parties are set for this Thursday- and I really do think that what happens next hinges entirely on how the respective leaders perform Thursday night. The person with the most to gain? David Cameron. He's young, telegenic and can bring energy and charisma to the stage that can reach a lot of the British electorate all at once. Gordon Brown? Meh... he's a dour Scot. I fear there's a Kennedy-Nixon phenomenon that could potentially repeat itself here. (For those who don't know, the 1960 Presidential Debates between Kennedy-Nixon proved to be a fascinating example of the influence of media. Those listening on radio thought Nixon had won, while those watching on television thought that Kennedy had won, based on their perception of Nixon looking sweaty and ill at ease.) And lest we forget, there's Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to think of too- he has the opportunity to score some real hits as well.

Basically: it's Cameron's to win, Brown can claim moral victory with a draw and Clegg can take pot-shots at both with an eye towards the electoral math and potential coalition shenanigans in the event of a hung parliament. But the debates will make or break the tone of the whole campaign, methinks.

The Polls:
Conservatives: 37%
Labour: 31%
Lib Dems: 20%
Others: 12%

...which translates (per the fancy electoral seat calculator on the BBC site into: 285 Conservatives, 281 Labour, 55 Lib Dem and 29 Others)

The Manifestos- (so far this week) Conservative, Labour, UKIP and the Communists... and the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymuru in Wales have kicked off their campaigns as well.

I also took an informal straw poll of the family over there- and responses are slowly coming back in, but hopefully I'll have a decent enough amount of responses to publish something resembling results next week. So stay tuned! The excitement continues...

**UPDATE, 4/14/2010**
The Liberal Democrats have their manifesto out for all to see. Summary is here.