The Chessboard Dance

Israel's delicate electoral dance has begun. The right wing Likud Party has won the backing of the harder right Yisrael Beitenu Party, which should give the right wing about 65 seats in the Knesset and thus give them enough for a government.

But there are some catches: YB is indicating that they will support Likud, but only as a part of a wider coalition.

Israel Army radio reported Mr Lieberman telling Mr Peres that he supported the Likud leader as prime minister but "only as part of a wider government".

"We are not talking of a government with a restricted majority. To govern the country, we need a government with the three largest parties - Likud, Kadima and Yisrael Beiteinu.

"Netanyahu will be prime minister, but it will be a Bibi-Livni government," said Mr Lieberman, using Mr Netanyahu's widely-used nickname.

So YB wants a wider coalition government- Kadima is pushing for a grand coalition as well- with a rotating PM situation similar to the one that Likud and Labour had during the 80s. Livni and Kadima have made it clear that they won't be junior partners in a purely Likud lead government. There are large cleavages between them- (Kadima's for continuing negotiations, Likud says no) and really, Kadima sort of has a point. Stability would be nice, national unity would be nice- especially given a probably showdown with Iran and continuing troubles in Gaza.

An equally big problem for Kadima is their track record, however. Kadima and Labor have lead Israel to two lopsided results in two wars so far- and have been tainted by a corruption scandal. Why would people want them anywhere near the reins of power? Take these factors and combine them with the fact that in politics, nice doesn't matter and then you get a couple of scenarios to look at:

1. Likud and YB take over, Kadima and company head for the Opposition: probably the most likely scenario, I think- but YB doesn't seem to want to be in a narrow coalition government- so Likud might need Kadima in order to make this work, but then again, maybe the YB shrugs and just says, 'what the heck' and jumps in with Likud. BUT: YB doesn't want to be seen as a tool of Likud and with the number of seats they have, they could just as easily sit on the sidelines and play kingmaker whenever they want without having to play by the 'rules' in some coalition.

2. Kadima and the Amazing Rotating Prime Minister: It worked in '84, why not now? There are some pluses to this scenario- national unity and stability at a time when it's badly needed. Problem is that with YB positive on the idea of a coalition with Likud, there's not a lot of motivation for Likud to sign onto this. Why would they?

3. Shas! Word on the pavement is that Shas doesn't like YB and Lieberman. Lieberman's all about selling pork products and a few other things that rub ultra-orthodox Jews the wrong way. More word in the 'hood is that Likud had a deal with Shas sown up before the election, but here's the thing: will YB in coalition with Likud be a deal breaker for Shas? Could they potentially jump ship and sign on with Kadima and company?

Likely numbers:

Kadima, Labour, Meretz (a left-wing party), United Arab List (YB not being hot on Israeli Arabs): 48 seats

Likud, YB, Shas: 53 seats.

Balad, Jewish Home, United Torah Judaism, National Union and Hadash: 19 seats. Kadima and company will need 10 of those seats from minor parties to get them a majority. (Technically they only need six- so two of the minor parties, depending on their ideological orientations could do it for them. But if they're more religious parties, then not so much.)

Let the horse-trading BEGIN!