3:30 PM: Woot woot! It's Election Day!! Have you voted yet? I did around 11 AM this morning and was the 107th person to do so in my precinct. Anyway: it's an off-year election this year so there's bunches of random stuff on ballots across the country and Governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey to decide not to mention our own local elections right here in The I.C.
The 4-1-1 on the issues nationwide can be found here, courtesy of CNBC. It's a decent round-up and includes an awesome shout-out to our neighbors in Coralville. Fun ones to keep an eye on: the counties in Colorado that are voting on whether or not to pursue secession from The Centennial State. (One of them wants to join Wyoming... lucky Wyoming!) There's also a measure in Washington about labeling genetically modified foods that could be crucial to fights on that issue nationwide. Then, of course, there are the big ones:
Virginia and New Jersey. Well, really it's just Virginia that's the big one...
Locally, we have City Council races and the 21-Only Redux. Looking at the turnout so far from the Auditor's Office, I don't think 21-Only is getting repealed. Barring massive early voting or a surge in turnout over the next few hours especially at the downtown precincts, it's not looking all that good. East side precincts- especially at Lemme and Regina are putting up big numbers while downtown ones are dead and the two precincts on Campus- at Quad and the Main Library are sitting at 20 voters total for the day as of 3PM. Not good news.
Anyway- it's gonna be a fun night!
5:00 PM: Don't think anyone is doubting that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is going to be re-elected but the real fun is in Virginia, where Devout Clintonite/Democrat Terry McAuliffe is taking on Republican Ken Cuccinelli. This one will have some national implications and could shake up the ground for 2016 a bit. If Cuccinelli somehow pulls a rabbit out of his hat, it'll be a double blow against the Dems. They've been making inroads in Virginia and a win by McAuliffe would underline his Clinton Connections in the run up to 2016 as well as affirming that Dems are in VA to stay. In the (unlikely) event of a GOPer win, much will be made of the less than shiny rollout of the ACA and the effect that might have had on the race.
I think McAuliffe pulls it out. When I'm seeing links like this, encouraging GOPers to 'look on the bright side' because their candidate for Attorney General is WAY ahead, you know they're probably not betting that heavily on Cuccinelli. Buckets of ink will probably try and parse results one way or the other but it's immaterial. Next year is the real referendum on the ACA and by this time next year one hopes they'll have the website fixed and we should have a lot clearer idea of what the law entails. Whether voters will be pleased or pissed off by what they find will do a lot to change the direction of races next year and going into 2016.
5:45 PM: Got a report that IC06 (that's Mercer Park- my precinct!) has cracked the 300 voter mark. We're about 15 minutes away from the Auditor's Office posting updated turnout figures but if the East Side/West Side Residential Precincts keep trending with bigger numbers as they have been all day, I'm sticking with the notion that it bodes no good news for the Pro-19 Crowd. (Unless of course, downtown/campus precincts go big!)
Thinking back to the Jail vote, we saw a big numbers at the downtown precincts and we're not seeing that today. Until I see the rest of the numbers, I'm saying 21 only is staying right where it is. What the trends mean for the City Council race is something I'm still meditating on a little bit.
6:04 PM: CNN has the Virginia Governor's race too close to call based on their exit polling. I'm not sure what to make of that as I'm not sure I trust exit polls. It's early though. We'll see if it holds up.
6:16 PM: Interesting numbers from the Auditor's Office... I'm sticking with my prediction. 21-Only is staying right where it is... Downtown Precincts at the Courthouse, Rec Center and Horace Mann haven't even cracked double digits and off that grouping only Mann cracked 5% as of 6 PM. On campus, it's not much better: The Main Library is sitting at 1.44%, Quad is at 1.43% and only the Karro Hall of Fame- which I believe brings in some people from residential neighborhoods over there is only drawing 8.06% turnout as of 6PM. The numbers they need just aren't there. Now, I can't discount the possibility that there could be a silent majority of townies that think 21-only is stupid and should come down but the one time this has gone down to defeat, the students came out and came out big. Not seeing that in the numbers right now. (Senior Center just came up: 4.29% with 99 voters as of 6PM... leading downtown- but still, not seeing the right kind of numbers yet.)
What does this mean for the City Council races? I have a sinking feeling that we're going to be stuck with the Old Guard: Susan Mims, Terry Dickens and Catherine Champion. Lemme, Regina and St. Patrick's are putting up big numbers right now, while Twain, Tate and Grant Wood are not. Decision could swing on how Mercer/City High and potentially Longfellow decide.
What's up with the West Side, though? Horn, Lincoln and Weber are in the low double digits but West High is still sitting at 6.92%.... not sure what, if anything that means.
7:06 PM: Couple of other interesting issues out there. First up is Colorado's Secession fight. For those not 'in the know' a goodly (11 counties) chunk of Eastern Colorado (where nobody lives) is pissed off that people in Denver are getting all liberal, Democratic and generally not representing their interests all that well and have thus decided to look into secession to create North Colorado. (To be fair only 10 counties want to create Northern Colorado- states have to be contiguous- it's the rule- so county #11 wants to sign up with Redder State to the North, Wyoming.)
Will this actually happen? Probably not. Both Congress and the State Legislature have to approve and I doubt either will be willing to do so, but despite the lamentations of this guy, it's sort of a quirky American tradition. (See: The State of Jefferson, amongst others, for more info.)
Second, is Washington State and GMO Labeling. This issue annoys me a little. We go from golden rice and guys like Norman Borlaug who have saved millions, if not billions of lives to a food fight over labeling because who knows what evil lurks in the heart of your food. I'm honestly not sure how to feel about it. Part of me wants to be pragmatic and say, 'shit, most of my food is probably GM food at this point' but the other half of me thinks that yes, sunshine is the best disinfectant and people should be able to make informed decisions about what they're buying. That said: the food industry has a point. These labels could very easily be used to spread lies, disinformation and promote an anti-GM agenda. I'm not anti-GM. Borlaug and company already proved that it can do amazing amounts of good in this world. I think we should be careful with it and not use it willy-nilly (talk to the Aussies about their rabbit problem. You always want to be careful futzing around with ecosystems, whether it's via food or animals) but I don't think it's evil. A GM, pesticide laced apple tastes about the same as an organic, pure, non-GM one to me.
But whatevs: let them make their case for you.
7:30 PM: Chris Christie won re-election as Governor of New Jersey. Not a galloping shock there. CNN was breaking down some numbers and it looks like he won women and went from 9% to 21% of the African-American vote in New Jersey which they seemed to think made him a good candidate for 2016. Hmmmm... I get heartburn thinking about 2016. I will say this though: Governors make good Presidents and Christie has shown an ability to reach into demographics that have, of late, not been so friendly to Republicans. That counts for something.
8:03 PM: First results are coming it... early voting has No leading Yes 51-49% on the 21 only issue. Terry Dickens up 59-38% over Royceann Porter in District B and Champion and Mims for the at large. But it's early! I'll post more numbers as they come in.
Turning back to Virginia for a second: it's still too close to call. With 80% of the vote in, Cuccinelli has a one point lead over McAuliffe. It's gonna go down to the wire, I think.
8:26 PM: Apparently the Auditor's Office is having some technical boo-boos so I had to switch to the P-C for results:
21 Only: With 24/25 Precincts in, 67% No, 33% Yes. 21 Only Stays and then some.
City Council At Large: With 22/25 Precincts in, Botchway and Mims are on top right now, but Champion is knocking at the door only two points back from Botchway at 38%.
City Council Distruct B: Ugh. Dickens over Porter, 59%-40%. 3 Precincts left.
Still waiting for numbers from the Auditor's Office aaaaaaand...
Virginia is STILL too close to call. 87% of the vote in and Cuccinelli is hanging on by his fingernails to a lead. Margin is down to 3K and change now.
8:33 PM: LOLs. KWWL is taking to Twitter to say that 21-Only has been repealed. (They noticed their error, finally.) Yeaaaaah, not so much. P-C is still waiting for 3 precincts for the City Council races, but tentatively it looks like Botchway, Mims and Dickens are in. One out of three ain't bad- though I never really had anything against Mims. Still waiting on raw data from the Auditor's Office...
Virginia still too close to call- but McAuliffe has finally eked into a lead. 910K to 906K- 91% in. Think he's gonna win but it's going to be closer than a lot of Dems would like, I would have thought. I'll admit I haven't been paying that much attention to this race, but if memory serves, McAuliffe was up big big big in the weeks leading up to Election Day- so the fact the Cuccinelli turned this into a nailbiter can't say anything good.
I've also seen some grousing by GOPers about Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis: hush. It's a democracy and those votes only belong to the people that cast them, not to any one particular party. Besides, by all accounts, Cuccinelli was about as red-bloodedly Conservative as they come- while that might appeal to a lot of GOPers (and Virginians, it seems) it didn't exactly expand your base any. Nominate candidates with broader appeal and Sarvis becomes a non-issue. Or multi-task and run against both. Don't grouse though. You turned what should have been a double-digit can of whoop ass into a nail biter. That's not a win, but it ain't nothing either.
8:50 PM: Other local results of note, courtesy of Twitter and #jocovotes:
Oxford has a new Mayor for the first time since 1981. Cool.
I paid no attention to the messes in Coralville or University Heights, but AFP overplayed their hand in Coralville and all the incumbents that they targeted look like they've won. The Miller-Haverkamp-Lane and Company slate in U-Heights won. Not sure what that means for the St. Andrew's Church development issue, but it means something.
9:06 PM: So, I'm mildly confused. The Auditor's Office seems to have gotten it's shit together, so I have raw data to play with (Yay!) but I'm a little confundled. So, we voted for 2 at large seats and 1 for District B- but does the entire City get to vote for District B? Because the Auditor's Office has results for the entire City, when per this map, District B is def not the entire City.
Maybe I'm missing something... I might even call the Auditor's Office to find out for sure. But, if this data is correct and it all counts, then W-T-F, people! What is the point of having Districts if the entire City can futz with the results? Let's break it down with the actual District B precincts:
District B: IC23, 17, 18, 01, 16, 06, 24 and 12
Dickens: 1,711 votes- 58%
Porter: 1,294 votes- 41%
But a margin of 507 votes sure looks better than a margin of 1,608 votes city-wide. I'm going to look into this some more. It seems kind of dumb to let other people NOT in District B have a say in who represents District B on the City Council- but that seems to be what the Auditor's Office is saying happened, per these results. I'll dig. I have to be missing something with this.
9:30 PM: So much for the 51st State... nothing for GM Food in Washington State yet, but the Seattle Times has a nice live blog going if you want to stay up.
Apparently VP Joe Biden called Coralville Mayor-Elect John Lundell to congratulate him on poking AFP in the eye? Or smashing them or something? Just saw that flip by on Twitter. I didn't follow the Coralville election too much but AFP was throwing some money around during the last jail vote and took a more subtle line doing so. They were more open about it this time which made constructing a narrative of 'don't let outsiders meddle in our stuff' all to easy for the incumbents to run with. The whole 'get off my lawn' attitude would work just about in any race you could think of, especially on the local level.
10:00 PM: Let's wrap this sucker up, shall we?
21 Only: They needed big numbers from the students and other downtown precincts and they didn't get them. Hopefully this puts the issue to bed for good, but you never know. I still believe the drinking age should be 18 and will happily support any initiatives or efforts that want to make it so but I don't buy the argument that downtown Iowa City is less vibrant than it used to be. If by less vibrant, you mean, less people throwing up in the bushes on the Ped Mall, I think I'm okay with that.
But we do face a crossroads: this is a community with boundless amounts of creativity and creative people- we need development policies that unleash those, not restrain them. We can be vibrant with more than bars and specialty boutiques- we just need a Council that is willing to be creative about what we do with downtown as a posed to bending to the wishes of a tiny minority of developers that have the money to do big, flashy, sexy things. Which brings me to...
The City Council: Meeeeeh. I'm somewhat displeased by the results yet not surprised. Botchway is going to be excellent for the City Council, I think and hopefully he has a long and productive tenure speaking up for parts of the community that have been ignored in favor of the downtown business community for far too long. Mims... you know, I've never really had anything against Mims. I think she's pretty solid and deserved to be re-elected-- better than Champion, anyway. Dickens... sigh. Who are we kidding? Terry Dickens is old time Townie Elite. It would take the raunchiest scandal I could think of (goats and lampshades would be involved, I'm sure) to dislodge him from the Council now- Iowans tend to be stubborn about getting rid of incumbents anyway (witness the return of The Moustache and his new Glorious Henchwoman and Senator Grassley's continued status as a Senator which seems to be secured by cutting a campaign ad which always features him mowing his lawn every six years.) Do I think we'll see serious change from the City Council? Maybe. But I doubt it.
National Races: I'm not sold on Christie as a national candidate yet. I think this was a big win for him tonight and possibly, possibly there might be a bridge to be built to a more pragmatic, bigger-tent conservatism than what we seem to have no. In a GOPer primary? He'll be painted as the Establishment Candidate immediately which might hamper him going up against some of the Tea Party darlings but you can't count him out. The fact that he improved his performance amongst women, African-Americans, young people and independents tonight could be a post-Sandy bounce or it could be something else. We just don't know yet.
The Virgina Race is going to be shaped by what spin your read. GOPers spin is going to say that Cuccinelli took a double digit deficit and turned it into a razor-thin loss and oh by the way, that pesky Libertarian Sarvis and Cuccinelli combined for 53% of the vote to McAuliffe's 47% so RED STATE BITCHES. Dem spin is going to very carefully avoid talking about the narrow margin and say WE WON WE WON WE WON and not much else. The reality? Maybe the opposite lesson of New Jersey: a bigger tent GOPer could have neutralized Sarvis and won this race. Ideological purity tests aren't helping the GOP, I don't think. But there's also an argument to be made that the government shutdown hurt Cuccinelli more- especially in Northern Virginia. Remove that shutdown and make the argument about the botched Obamacare roll out and suddenly you could have had a different race...and given the fact the Dems poured a ton of money into this to come out with a nailbiter? Meh. You could spend all day reading those tea leaves. Either way, a win is a win.
Thanks for reading! Until next time... keeping on truckin!
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