The turmoil in Egypt shows no signs of ceasing, although yesterday the Muslim Brotherhood did call off a planned protest in the capitol of Cairo and nothing so far- at least publically that the West has been able to come up with seems to have had any meaningful effect on the ground. There are no easy answers, apparently, whether due to the fecklessness and impotence of this Administration's foreign policy or due to events spiralling beyond the control and even the predictions of even the most seasoned of regional experts with every passing day the problem becomes more complex and not less and harder not easier- and ordinary Egyptians are caught in the crossfire.
I'll be honest: I've been queasy about the coup ever since it happened. (Unlike the United States Government, I'm willing to just go ahead and say it: it was a coup. Maybe a popular coup, but a coup nontheless.) My queasiness stems from the fact that despite the fact that a large section of Egyptian society disagreed with the man, President Morsy was elected in a democratic election. If the dude you pick screws up, you can't really just take to the streets and demand he resign for fucking things up. Democracy is about the process more than anything else, I think- the process matters more and popular revolts to overthrow Presidents that you don't happen to like set an ugly precedent that practically invites military intervention. Morsy wasn't going to be blackmailed by the protestors, the protestors weren't budging and an unacceptable stalemate ensued which again, invited military intervention which is exactly what Egypt got.
Despite all of that... there were a lot of people on the streets. When the Beeb of all sources says that this might be the largest political protest in human history. Not Egyptian history. Not Middle Eastern history- but human history- that means that there's a metric fuckton of people on the streets who wanted President Morsy to step down. The process of democracy may matter most if that's what you want to grow in your country but there's got to be a tipping point- when that many people want you gone, then I think we could call that a valid expression of the popular will and you should either see what they want and then do it or step down as they demand.
Once the military took power, a collision like this was probably inevitable. Tragic yet inevitable.
So what do I think? In a perfect world, our government would be on the side of the aspirations of the Egyptian people and act accordingly by cancelling the billion dollar package in military aid that we give Egypt on an annual basis. However, the reality of the situation is nowhere near as perfect as I'd want it to be. A basic rule of international relations is that nations don't have permanent friends, only permanent interests. The United States doesn't stand for truth, justice and the American way- we probably never have, so what should we do? I think cancelling our military exercises we had scheduled was a good first step- and continuance of our aid package should be contigent upon the military moving towards an inclusive, democratic transition to civilian government. Problem is, I doubt the military thinks we're going to actually go all in and cancel the aid package and that's down to lack of leadership more than anything else. We're just not getting taken seriously over there anymore- and who can blame them? We waffled while Egypt slowly went to hell in a handbasket.
It's hard to see any good outcomes ahead- but you can always hope. The Egyptian people have made their desire for change obvious to all sides- just what kind of change, however is something that they have yet to figure out. (The Quiet Man noted something interesting: Egypt had elections and then wrote a new Constitution- maybe they got that backwards?)
UPDATES: Turns out Hosni Mubarak might be going free... so any resemblance that the past couple of years have had to an actual revolution have turned out to be just a coincidence I guess. One of the more intelligent, thoughtful commentators on the interwebs, Walter Russell Mead also has some thoughts, that are, as always, worth reading.
No comments:
Post a Comment