Iowa 2012: One Week Out

I'm going to be ballsy, kids:

I think it's going to be Santorum, I really do. I think he's gone to ground, doing the 99 county thing and engaging in the statewide retail politics that tends to go over really really well in Iowa. There are signs emerging in the polls that there's a surge for Santorum lurking out there and I think his 99 county thing is going to pay off.

(On a personal note: I find Santorum utterly detestable. If the Republicans are stupid enough to hand him the nomination, I will run (not walk, run) over broken glass, hot lava and beds of rusty nails to cast another vote for President Obama. And I'll encourage all my friends to do the same- not that I think they'll need the motivation. Ditto if for some god-awful reason they decide to give it to Michelle Bachmann as well.)

Behind Santorum, I think comes Ron Paul. He's got the organization and the enthusiastic supporters but I think he hits a peak in New Hampshire- maybe Nevada and doesn't make much noise after that. No doubt, he's a principled guy and I think the Republicans if they really wanted to put a clear cut choice in front of the country would be wise to take a good long look at him- but as always, the problem with Libertarians is that they sound great on paper, but once you apply it to the Real World, you realize that only about 20% of it would actually work there.

The battle for 3rd Place should be interesting, but I'll give it to Romney, because that's where the money is. A 4th Place finish for Gingrich means that the pressure is on in a big way for Iowa and New Hampshire and hopefully after Iowa, Bachmann, Perry and Huntsman will take a bow a be along their merry way. (Shed a tear too, for Fred Karger and Gary Johnson- who will undoubtedly also fade fast into oblivion.)

Now the real question is, if Santorum wins, will it give him traction to actually compete? Mike Huckabee, as all the world knows was the darling of the Iowa Evangelical Voter in 2008 and faded quickly. I doubt Santorum will play well in New Hampshire, but he could hang on in New Hampshire to really try and make some noise in South Carolina. In the end, however, I think a Romeny v Santorum battle comes down to electability and given the fact that Santorum was tossed out on his ass by the good people of Pennsylvania in 2006, I don't think it's an argument he's going to win.

So that's my ballsy prediction- an equally ballsy prediction and one that's far more likely to take place is the following:
1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Gingrich
4. Santorum
5. Bachmann
6. Perry

Keep in mind that I do think Santorum could finish as high as 3rd and Romney or Gingrich could easily bump Paul down to 3rd as well- but Gingrich has been dropping and if there's one thing that pays off more than good old fashioned retail politics in Iowa, it's organization- especially for caucuses. But while I stand by my first prediction (tots going to happen, peeps, I know it...) it wouldn't surprise me to be wrong and have things fall into place more along the lines of my second prediction.

Either way, it should be interesting. (Yay for PoliSci Geek Moment!!!)

(You know, a thought just occured to me: I wanted to actually try and participate in the Caucuses this year, but can't really stomach changing my party affiliation. Mayhap the Hamburg Inn is still doing their Coffee Bean Caucus? If so, I might have to break my fast there one fine morning this week and cast a bean for someone. Probably Gary Johnson just to give him some love, as my 2008 Bean went for Mike Gravel on the Democratic Side. Would that satisfy my bucket list requirement? I think it might... no point changing party affiliation unless there's someone I actually want to vote for. So far, the Republicans have failed to impress...)