More From Iran

...latest from HuffPost (a fabulous, one-stop shop for all your Iran news- at least the best I've found so far) is here.

This is what I think: the longer this goes, the weaker the regime is going to end up being. The crowds are just way, way too large. This isn't Tiananmen Square- they can't just send in the army and crush the people, they'll end up losing in the long term if they do. Whatever happens in the short term, either way you look at it, the regime status quo is now officially 'damned if they do, damned if they don't.'

In retrospect, you can see why they panicked: the election was being taken very, very seriously and the regime felt like it was being sidelined. Another reformer that's incredibly popular with the young people, most of whom for which the Islamic Republic was becoming somewhat irrelevant? Yep, they freaked out.

Unfortunately, they underestimated the Iranian people- always a deadly mistake. And in doing so, ironically, they made the same exact mistake that the Shah did. And look what happened to him. Say right now that these protests peter out or that some wishy-washy compromise is cobbled together to allow most of the status quo ante to limp forward: even if that happens, the regime has effectively lost legitimacy in the eyes of its people. It's only a matter of time before the Mullahs are slowly but surely pried out of politics and respectfully pushed back to the Mosque.

The Shi'ites are unusual in Islam in that there's actually a loose hierarchy going on, so it'd be interesting to see if eventually the Ayatollah/'Supreme Leader' eventually evolves into a position more analogous to that of the Pope. Respected, listened too, occasionally ignored but still loved by the faithful. If the Ayatollah wants some pointers, the Pope can give him a call. You don't need actual political power to be incredibly influential and relevant in the lives of the people, especially if you're a religious figure. Plus- and here's a kicker, if the Ayatollah happens to read this: religion transcends boundaries... why be the 'Supreme Leader' of Iran if you can be 'first amongst equals' for all of Shi'ism? (And it's not clear whether or not the Ayatollah would be considered that, given the influence of the Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq... I don't know enough about how it all works to say for sure though.)

However you look at it, this is a breaking point- either for gradual evolving change or more fast-paced 'revolutionary' change over the course of the next few months or so. It's worth noting- and I didn't know this, that it took about a year of protests and governmental fuck-ups before the Shah was toppled- so we can't expect stuff to happen overnight.

But, to me- the most exciting thing is this: the Arab Nationalist movement couldn't deliver the goods which is what lead to the rise and influence of the Islamist movement- the Islamic Republic was at the forefront of it's rise in 1979. So what happens if the people of Iran explicitly or implicitly reject Islamism?

The implications of that are very, very interesting...