Let's Make A Deal

Gordon Brown is out as Labour leader. This throws everything up in the air, because Brown was the very large, Scottish stumbling block to a LibDem-Labour deal. I'd expect to see the LibDems tendering offers from Labour shortly- how serious they're going to be about it, I don't know, but at the very least, it could move the Tories a little more on voting reform.

It's finals week, so analysis, pontification will occur when I have time.

UPDATED, 11:36 PM: Well kids, I've done some perusing around the British press and have come to this conclusion. Somewhere, this man...

...is very, very happy. Who is that man? Well, none other than the Welsh Wizard himself, Mr. David Lloyd George, Prime Minister of Great Britain during the First World War. And coincidentally, the last Liberal Prime Minister to hold office. And somewhere, he's probably drinking a good draught of his favorite tipple in celebration, because after nearly a century, its looking increasingly likely that if they play their cards right, the Liberals (this time in the form of the Liberal Democrats) might be on their way out of the opposition and heading back, perhaps, towards circumstances that could see them propelled into power someday.

You have to hand it to Gordon Brown. The man hung on for awhile, but then read the writing on the wall and did the one thing he could do to turn what seemed like an inevitable LibDem-Tory marriage of very reluctant convenience into an out and out bidding war between Labour and the Tories for the right to partner up with the LibDems to form the next government- he quit.

With Brown still in the picture, the LibDems may have been ideologically nauseous about getting into bed with the Tories, but a deal with Labour was out of the question as long as Brown remained where he was. With him out of the picture, the LibDems are in position to accept whichever offer will get them what they want- namely a long dreamed of vote on electoral reform in the UK. Crunch time is approaching and a deal of some kind might well be struck in the next 24 hours or so, but there are problems ahead for the Liberal Democrats that could spoil the party.

The first is math: if they jump in with the Tories, a relatively stable coalition could follow with ease, since the two parties together get to 363 seats. Where it gets complicated is if they jump in with the Labour party- together they only get 315 seats which is still short of the magic number of 326. However, SNP Leader Alex Salmond has been making noises about a 'rainbow' coalition of the nationalist parties, which could net Lab-LibDems 9 more seats and if you throw in 3 from the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and the newly elected Green MP then you get a very slender majority of 328 seats. A majority of 2 in other words. Hardly a recipe for stability.

However, in the case of a Lab-LibDem deal, then the Tories don't really have a lot of options either. Their natural allies are the Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland and together their two parties net 314 seats- one short of a Lab-LibDem marriage.

The second is the Liberal Democratic Party itself: ideologically a marriage of cast offs from the Labour Party (the Gang of Four that formed the SDP in the late 70s) and the old Liberal Party, there's always been a quiet ideological split in the LDP that risks getting exacerbated, depending on which way Clegg goes. Jumping in with the Tories risks angering the old school Left of the party (Paddy Ashdown and company) that jumped into bed with Tony Blair and New Labour only to see their grand project go down the drain. Likewise, jumping in with Labour risks angering the so-called 'Orange Block' of free marketeers that represent the old Liberal remnants within the party. It's a fine line for the best politician to walk, but I'm increasingly impressed with Clegg: I think he can walk it. But the danger of it exploding in his face is real.

Finally, we come to the obvious problem: Labour and the LibDems didn't win a majority of seats in Parliament. As in the American system, this sometimes happens- Presidents can win the electoral vote, but lose the popular vote and it should only convert the Tories to the cause of voting reform, or at least get them to think seriously about it. It's worth noting though, that in terms of votes cast, no one can claim a mandate, especially not the Tories. The majority of people in the UK did, after all, vote for someone else- so that particular objection will undoubtedly play out in the press. The real minefield however, is what to do about a Prime Minister that won't, after all, be chosen by the people. If there is a deal betwixt LibDem and Labour, that will be the trickiest question of them all.

But crunch time is upon us! I'd say Britain will have a government by Wednesday at the latest...