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You can tell it's the first Saturday of Spring Break, because I'm wide awake and have nothing to do other than to indulge in idle and completely unfounded speculation about the future of Athletic Conferences across the country. The any number of very sexy permutations of Big 10 expansion have tickled my brain on and off for months now, but with the Pac-10 rumored to want a 2 team expansion in order to keep pace with the Big 10, an interesting scenario could take place that could lead to a major re-shuffle in a lot of the power conferences. This scenario is based on the following notions:
1. The Pac-10 wants (and gets 2)
2. The Big 10 goes for broke and gets 5.
3. Money talks.
4. Preservation of the BCS status quo.
The way I see it breaking down is something like this: the Big 10 wants to expand to at minimum 12 teams, but is open to going to 14 or 16 teams as well. Assuming that money is the root of all evil and the Big 10 wants more cash, I'm going to say they go for broke and go for the full 5 teams to make us into the Big 16. I can't see them wanting to skew the conference geographically too far to the east, so that means a double expansion, to the East and to the West, picking up the following 5 schools:
1. West Virginia
2. Pitt
3. Syracuse
4. Mizzou
5. Nebraska
The three from the Big East are football and basketball schools and although the Big 10 isn't too hot on sharing stadiums (Pitt) or domes (Syracuse) there's no denying that these three schools play (or in the case of 'Cuse played) the type of football that would fit very well in the Big 10. From the point of view of the west, there has been buzz around Mizzou for awhile now- and the pipe dream silliness of wanting Texas of all places aside, there's a juicier plum much closer- Nebraska. Why though, would Big Red and Mizzou want to bolt the Big 12? Well, for one thing, they wouldn't be stuck in such a shit division. The Big 12 North, even when Nebraska is good is the stunted little division in that Conference. Being second fiddle, even when you win the Conference title isn't a sexy prospect and Nebraska isn't as good as it used to be. Going from a sub-par division in the Big 12 North to a vigorous new Big 10 West could be enough. I'm sure there might be more money in it as well.
So there's that little earthquake. But, let's not forget our west coast partners in crime: the Pac-10. They are rumored to be looking to pick up two teams and thus become the Pac-12. There are rumors swirling about BYU and Utah, but Colorado is also mysteriously in the mix. And picking up Utah would give the Pac-10 the geographical continuity (almost) to pick up Colorado as well. So let's assume that:
1. Utah
2. Colorado
If the Big 10 picks up 5 and the Pac-10, 2, then the Big 12 is suddenly down to 9 teams and the Mountain West Conference is down to 8. Then, this sexy scenario goes down: the Big 12 grabs TCU to bring themselves back into double digits again and the Mountain West merges with the WAC to create a new 16 'MWAC Conference'- essentially a new power conference that would obviously expect a BCS berth due to its new heft.
So what's left? The SEC, ACC and the newly reduced Big East. The SEC has no reason to expand (though perhaps a combo of Arkansas and/or LSU might bolt for the Big 12 in the right circumstances, which would open up the possibility of the SEC poaching 2 teams from the ACC or Big East and the ACC and Big East even potentially merging, but I think that's a long shot.) But under this scenario, the Big East suddenly has a problem. An odd combo of football/basketball and 'just' basketball schools to begin with, the lost of 'Cuse, Pitt and WVU will leave them with 5 football schools and 7 basketball schools. And that's assuming that Notre Dame decides to take it's basketball ball and go home ignoring the shifting and shaking of the conferences. With Notre Dame as just a basketball school, they have 13 members- 8 basketball and 5 football. And still an odd number of teams in their conference.
The SEC won't budge (at least I don't think so. They are way too rich for that) and so that leaves the possibility of the ACC and Big East shifting somehow. But the real losers under this re-alignment scenario would be the Big East. They'd be stuck (unless they boot Notre Dame entirely) with 13 members: 5 for football/basketball, 8 for basketball. Which would pose an interesting problem: do they seek parity between the just basketball schools and the FB/BB schools or do they just become a basketball conference?
This overall scenario could be (and probably is) a long shot, but I do think one thing is abundantly clear- if the Big 10 and the Pac-10 get their way and expand, then the possibility of a merger of the MWC and the WAC is there. A new conference with more teams- some of whom (like Boise State in football and New Mexico in basketball) are fast becoming national players (props to Fresno State and Nevada as well. They may not win much against the big boys, but Fresno at least will take on all comers, regardless of outcome) will want (and probably get) a share of the BCS pot. Another seat at the table for the 'have-nots' that regularly get left out of the BCS picture will undoubtedly quiet a lot of the criticism of the current set-up, at least from the smaller schools and keep the cash cow that is the BCS producing milk, so to speak for quite some time to come.
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